The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for January 2018

Logical Invest
Investment Outlook
January 2018

Our top 2017 investment strategies:

SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 21.70%.


All-Strategy subscribers will be able to use QuantTrader ‘Light’ at no additional charge.

Market comment:

As we mentioned in our year-end review, the past year was characterized by large returns in U.S. and foreign markets and sustained low volatility despite an increase in geopolitical risk. The S&P 500 (ETF: SPY) returned 21%, Europe (ETF: FEZ) 24% and emerging markets (ETF: EEM) 37%, It is also the year where the U.S. Federal reserve stopped it’s 10-year balance sheet and increased short-term interest rates. Long term treasuries (ETF: TLT) as well as emerging bonds (ETF: PCY) managed a +9% while U.S. corporate bonds (ETF: AGG) barely touched 4%. Despite the announced tightening, the U.S. dollar lost ground: -13% against the Euro and -12% against gold. The most exciting financial event of the year is the attempt to include cryptocurrencies as a new asset class into the mainstream financial system.

Looking at our strategies, our top performers were our riskier strategies: MYRS, UIS 3X and the Nasdaq 100. This is in line with the market being almost ‘perfect’ for 2017 and having very few corrections which benefits pure risk taking. This may or may not continue in 2018 as there are signs of caution: Central banks are slowing down or reversing stimulus programs and real world costs of goods, especially outside the U.S., are rising.

2017 was characterized by the astounding rise of cryptocurrencies, which we have been tracking since May. Bitcoin futures are now available to mainstream traders through Interactive Brokers (via CBOE and CME). Interestingly you need a whopping $50,000 margin to short 1 Bitcoin. For longs, the margin is a reasonable $7000. This exhibits what has been most interesting about this asset for 2017: It had unbound ‘upside risk’.

We wish you a healthy and prosperous 2018.

Logical Invest, January 1, 2018

Strategy performance overview:

Logical Invest Performance for 2017
Logical Invest Performance for 2017
Visit our site for daily updated performance tables.

BRS – Bond Rotation Strategy
BUGST – A conservative Permanent Portfolio Strategy
BUGLEV – A leveraged Permanent Portfolio Strategy
GMRS – Global Market Rotation Strategy
GMRSE – Global Market Rotation Strategy Enhanced
GSRLV – Global Sector Rotation low volatility
NASDAQ100 – Nasdaq 100 strategy
WORLD-TOP4 – The Top 4 World Country Strategy
UIS – Universal Investment Strategy
UIS-SPXL-TMF – 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy
AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr)
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 Index
TLT – iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr)

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NameCAGR 1y ▼
Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy41.5%
US Market Strategy 2x Leverage36.0%
Maximum Yield Strategy35.8%
NASDAQ 100 Strategy34.7%
Universal Investment Strategy 3x Leverage30.4%

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