Description

The 2x Universal Investment Strategy (UISx2) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.

The 2x leveraged version of the strategy employs leveraged versions of a S&P 500 ETF, a Treasury 20+ year ETF and a gold ETF.

The UISx2 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 25% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (90.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 179.4% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (45.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 79.4% is greater, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 22.8% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 21.5%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 13.4% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The volatility over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 16.7%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (19%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 18.8%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 22.8% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 11.9% in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.8%)
  • Looking at downside risk in of 13.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.7%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.59) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.22 of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 1.01, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.48 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.71 in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.82)
  • Compared with SPY (0.65) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.4 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 5.45 in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (5.82 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 6.05 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 7.15 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -26.9 days of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -26.9 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 253 days of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 253 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (36 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 52 days of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 62 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (45 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.