Description

The 2x Universal Investment Strategy (UISx2) is a leveraged version of our core Universal Investment Strategy (UIS), an evolved, intelligent version of the classic 60/40 equity/bond portfolio that can adapt to current conditions, shifting portfolio weight away from stocks in difficult markets and adding weight to equity in bull runs.

The 2x leveraged version of the strategy employs leveraged versions of a S&P 500 ETF, a Treasury 20+ year ETF and a gold ETF.

The UISx2 is appropriate for investors who are comfortable taking on higher risks in exchange for the potential for of higher returns. Because leveraged ETFs are used, we recommend allocating no more than 25% of your total portfolio to this strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (116.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 110.3% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 52.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (63.4%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (16.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 16% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 15.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 17.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 17% of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (22.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 19.3% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 12.3%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 14.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.8 in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.76)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.65 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.68).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 1.1, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (1.05) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.94) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.89 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is 7.53 , which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (5.58 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (6.83 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 8.27 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -27.8 days of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -27.8 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 253 days in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 159 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 59 days in the last 5 years of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (33 days)
  • Compared with SPY (35 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 37 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.