Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (119.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 110.7% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 120.1%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 103.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 16.1%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (17.1%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 30.2%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 26.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 15.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (19.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (21.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 18.6% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 10.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (13.5%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (15.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 13.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.76) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.9 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (1.11) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.49 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 1.26, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (1.08) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 2.1 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to GLD (1.56).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (9.9 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 8.2 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 7 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 9.84 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -19.2 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (-28.3 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -19.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to GLD (-28.3 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 590 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 195 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to GLD (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (109 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 173 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 43 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to GLD (41 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.