Description

The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 95.9% in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (86.3%)
  • Compared with GLD (75.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 46.7% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (13.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 13.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to GLD (20.7%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 11.2% in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (15.3%)
  • Compared with GLD (15.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 11.8% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (10.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 7.8% of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 8.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to GLD (10%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.71) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.07 of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.95, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.19 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 1.54, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (1.01) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.37 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (1.82).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (9.76 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 5.95 of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 6.55 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 4.82 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (-22 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -15.2 days of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum DrawDown in of -15.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to GLD (-13.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 456 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (897 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 456 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 145 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 136 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (349 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 157 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 40 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.