Description

The Gold-Currency Strategy II takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This strategy is an update to the original GLD-USD strategy that uses inverse leveraged ETFs which are not permitted in some retirement accounts.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (38.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 19.6% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return in of 21.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to GLD (42.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (6.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 3.7% of Gold-Currency Strategy II is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with GLD (12.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 10%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (13.5%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 11.9%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 15.2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 7.1%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (9.7%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 8.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (10.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 0.12, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (0.31) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.34, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.66 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.44) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.16 of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.48, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.92 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II is 4.47 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (7.71 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 5.17 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 7.9 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -12.5 days in the last 5 years of Gold-Currency Strategy II, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (-18.8 days)
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -12.5 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to GLD (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (352 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 299 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 283 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (301 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (116 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 92 days of Gold-Currency Strategy II is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 82 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 80 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Gold-Currency Strategy II are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.