Description

The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 119.7%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (140.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (120%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 67.8% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (19.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 17.1% of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 18.9%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 30.2% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 13%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (18.8%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (21.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 13.9% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 9.3%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (13.2%) in the same period.
  • Compared with GLD (15.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 10.1% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.89) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.12 of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (1.29) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.18 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 1.57, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark GLD (1.27) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.63 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to GLD (1.82).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 6.38 in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (9.12 )
  • Compared with GLD (8.52 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 5.57 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -15.3 days in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (-26.4 days)
  • Compared with GLD (-26.4 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -14.9 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is 471 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark GLD (436 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 163 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 163 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (105 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 120 days of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 40 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 33 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.