Description

The Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy takes advantage of the historically negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar. It switches between the two assets based on their recent risk adjusted performance enabling the strategy to provide protection against severe gold corrections due to dollar strength. It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.

This version of the strategy uses inverse leveraged ETFs to generate higher returns, but some retirement accounts are restricted from trading these ETFs. GLD-UUP provides an alternate form of the strategy without leveraged ETFs which also lowers the overall return and volatility.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 82.3% in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (63.6%)
  • Compared with GLD (29.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 37.5% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (10.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 12.8% of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 11.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to GLD (9%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (15.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 11.1% of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 10.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to GLD (14.2%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 7.7% in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (10.8%)
  • Compared with GLD (9.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 7.7% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (0.52) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.92 of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.8, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.46 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.33 in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (0.73)
  • Compared with GLD (0.67) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.14 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (9.79 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 5.98 of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 6.51 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to GLD (8.27 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (-22 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -15.2 days of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (-21 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -15.2 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 441 days in the last 5 years of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark GLD (897 days)
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 441 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to GLD (436 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark GLD (346 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 130 days of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with GLD (142 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 147 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.