Description

This very aggressive strategy invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 138.6%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (18.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (145.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 192.6% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.1% in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (3.4%)
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 43.4%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 35.2% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 50.6%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (56.6%) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (48.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 50.2% is larger, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 36.7%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (39%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 37.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (31%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.02) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.33 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.82, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.68 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.45 in the last 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark BTC-USD (0.02)
  • Compared with BTC-USD (1.06) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.09 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (41 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 33 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 17 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (17 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -64.7 days of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (-49.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -57.6 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 773 days, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 181 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (164 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (167 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 263 days of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 55 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 44 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.