Description

This is a very aggressive strategy that invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 813.2%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (383.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 274.7%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 447.9% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 55.9%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (37.2%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 55.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (76.7%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The volatility over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 51.1%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (59.9%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 42.2%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 48.3% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 32.5%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (39.7%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 26.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (28.9%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.04 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (1.54) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.26 is smaller, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (0.87) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.64 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 2.01 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (2.57).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (40 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 32 of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 12 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (11 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is -64.7 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -27.2 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -31.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 773 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 181 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 164 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (165 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 264 days of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 56 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 35 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.