Description

This is a very aggressive strategy that invests in the top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. These asset classes are represented by Bitcoin, Ethereum, SPXL, TMF and AGQ. Twice each month, the strategy ranks these assets using our Modified Sharpe Ratio and invests 50% of the portfolio in each of the top two performers.

Due to the nature of crypto currency and leveraged ETFs, investors should be prepared for large swings up and down.

Here are some of the possible market scenarios this strategy is designed take advantage of:

  • Ethereum is performing well but Bitcoin is under-performing. The strategy can invest 50% in Ethereum and 50% in SPXL.
  • A prolonged crypto bear market. The strategy can shift to 50% in SPXL and 50% in TMF.
  • Cryptos are outperforming other asset classes. The strategy could invest fully in crypto assets by allocating 50% to Bitcoin and 50% to Ethereum.

Twice Monthly Rebalancing

The strategy rebalances on the 1st and 16th of each month which provides a balance between a very active daily or weekly rebalancing, that can cause whipsaws, and a monthly rebalancing that may be too slow considering how fast the crypto markets move. The twice-monthly frequency is simple to execute, avoids whipsaws but can still react to shifting market trends.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (1139.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 1481.8% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 25.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 26.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 73.8%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (65.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 7.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (8%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark BTC-USD (68.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 58.3% of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (60.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 47.2% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 38.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (46%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 31.9%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 42.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 1.22, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (0.92) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (0.09) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.11 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 1.87, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (1.37) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.17 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (0.13).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 33 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (43 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (50 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 39 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is -64.7 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (-76.6 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -64.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to BTC-USD (-76.6 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 618 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (580 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 618 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to BTC-USD (580 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy is 200 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark BTC-USD (196 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with BTC-USD (236 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 264 days is higher, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.