The Logical-Invest newsletter for February 2024

All quiet on the western front All seems to be going well in the investment world, at least according to the mainstream media. Major central banks have successfully raised interest rates, taming runaway inflation which is now decreasing towards a desired 2%, or at worst a manageable 3%. All done without so much as cracking an egg, avoiding a recession or causing any pain to equity investors. The so called ‘soft landing’ is underway and … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for January 2024

Winners 2023 turned out to be fantastic year for LI investors. Top performer: Our Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy was the top performer, achieving an incredible 86.3%. It ended the year holding SPXL and TMF instead of crypto. This strategy invests in top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury, and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. It is a highly aggressive strategy that rebalances twice a month and requires access to … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for December 2023

Taming Inflation The stock market surged an unprecedented 9.1% in November, accounting for almost half of its 20% year-to-date returns in a single month. This price action can be partly attributed to lower inflation and a sense that global interest rate policies are effective. In the U.S., a recent jobs report showed fewer new jobs and an uptick in unemployment. Although negative for the economy, this adds to the sense that the Fed’s efforts to … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for November 2023

Geopolitical risk raises gold The unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7th and its subsequent response have heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This conflict is drawing in the U.S., as well as regional actors like Iran, Egypt and Turkey, raising the risk of a wider war that could destabilize the global economy. In this context, gold has found its purpose as a safe-haven asset, rising 7.4% in October and threatening to breach the … Read more

Chat, Analyze, Trade: Building Strategy Rules with ChatGPT

How I Got the AI to Create, Code, and Backtest a Quant Portfolio in Python Without Writing a Single Line of Code! I wanted to explore the new capabilities of the Advanced Data Analysis module, available in the GPT-4 options. I provided ChatGPT with historical daily prices for SPY, TLT, and GLD, and asked it to devise a trading strategy with a strong Sharpe ratio. Simple enough, right? Here’s the prompt I gave to GPT, … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for October 2023

September has turned out not to be a great month for equities, with the S&P down 4.7%. However, this is not particularly worrisome, as the index is still only 10% off its all-time high and has a respectable 13% YTD performance. Economic Stress There are other factors worth mentioning, as we observe unusual activity in the markets. It’s best to consult some charts. Just looking at the index below, it is unclear whether the S&P … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for September 2023

August correction The current month has seen its fair share of market turbulence, with the S&P 500 experiencing a modest decline of 1.7%. While this dip breaks a five-month winning streak, it’s important to keep in mind the broader context. The Nasdaq Composite boasted an exceptional first half of the year, and the S&P 500’s year-to-date gains remain an impressive 18.6%. Seasonal Trends August historically presents challenges for the SP500, so a slight correction is … Read more