ETF Strategy Research Blog

/ETF Strategy Research Blog/

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for March 2017

By | March 1st, 2017|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook March 2017 Our top 2017 strategies, year-to-date: The Maximum Yield strategy with 14.90% return.  The Leveraged Universal strategy with 13.97% return. The  NASDAQ 100 strategy with 11.28% return.  SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 5.79%. News:  Our in-depth  2-hour QUANTtrader webinar, with Frank Grossmann. Get a behind-the-scenes look at our strategies. We are testing a new U.S. Sector-based strategy that should be available in the coming months.   Market comment: The S&P 500 is reaching new all time [...]

Top Performing ETF Strategies – Portfolio Idea

By | February 17th, 2017|

In the follow up to our webinar about how to compose top performing ETF strategies among the QuantTrader community last weekend, we received many interesting questions and ideas to follow up. One question in particular I´d like to share in a post, as it involves all our “All Strategies” subscribers. John L. asks: “Using a simple meta strategy by choosing the top two strategies from the previous month (from the monthly [...]

Interactive webinar Quanttrader: Building high-performing Strategies

By | February 12th, 2017|

On Saturday February 11, 2017 the QuantTrader Community of Logical Invest hosted their first interactive Webinar to explore the functionalities of the software and exchange on tips for building and backtesting high-performing ETF rotation momentum strategies for retirement and savings accounts. Background of QUANTtrader QUANTtrader is a swiss-made software tool used to develop, backtest and implement rules-based ETF Rotation investment strategies. Since it is built by a trader and long-time [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for February 2017 – Topic 401k Strategies

By | February 1st, 2017|

Our special topic this month are 401k Strategies Logical Invest Investment Outlook February 2017 Our top 2017 strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 10.29% return. The  NASDAQ 100 strategy with 9.88% return.   The Leveraged Universal strategy with 3.96% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 1.79%. Market comment: 2017 started up as a different type of year. Not just in politics. Despite the unprecedented political uncertainty, volatility in the SP500 dived this month causing our volatility harvesting strategy, Maximum Yield, to return [...]

One Approach to Rational Retirement Plan Investment Allocations

By | January 8th, 2017|

We analyse one of the Fidelity Freedom Target Date Funds (FFFDX) versus a portfolio of ETF rotation strategies - The findings will surprise you! This is a guest post by Richard Manley, first published on Richard´s Corner, the Logical Invest User Community: Defined contribution retirement plan using target date funds There’s no shortage of challenges facing working people in these days. In addition to job outsourcing and the offshoring whole [...]

Logical-Invest monthly update January 2017 – Topic 401k Investments

By | January 2nd, 2017|

Special topic this month: 401k Investments Logical Invest Investment Outlook January 2017 Our top 2016 strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 29.92% return. The Leveraged Universal strategy with 22.33% return.   The NASDAQ 100 strategy with 21.54% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 12.00%. Market comment: To put 2016 in perspective, we must go back to 2015 and remind ourselves how the rising dollar environment affected diversified investors. Most asset classes suffered through 2015. The S&P 500 stayed flat, long term [...]

Portfolio Builder Update January 2017

By | January 2nd, 2017|

Happy new year –and let´s start it set-up for success with some Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory! As previously announced, we´re updating our Portfolio Builder Optimization periodically, both in the Online and Offline Version. Updated Portfolio Builder Optimization for 2017 employing Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory Why that? Recall the Portfolio Builder is using a Markowitz Modern Portfolio Theory approach, that is, we´re using past returns, volatilities and co-variances to determine an optimum [...]

Strategies For Trading Inverse Volatility

By | January 1st, 2017|

Update: You can see the most recent performance our our inverse volatility strategy here. In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask? Because since 2011, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. Annual returns of between 40% - 100% have been possible which crushes any other strategy I know. [...]

The NASDAQ 100 Meta-Strategy – Stock Selection and Compact Meta-Strategy

By | January 1st, 2017|

Intelligent Algorithms run two prallel sub-strategies. Meta- layer chooses between the two sub-strategies based on current market conditions. Variable allocation to Treasuries provides protection from large drawdowns.This strategy is a good fit for investors that want to invest intelligently in the U.S. equity market as well as for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based growth strategy. The strategy can also complement our existing strategies and can work well with our more conservative strategies like BRS (bond rotation), the BUG or with non-U.S. equity strategies like World Top 4.

Volatilidad: Como construir una inversión con un rendimiento de más del 50%?

By | January 1st, 2017|

En este artículo quiero explicar cómo funciona nuestra Estrategia de Rotación de Máximo Rendimiento "Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy". Esta estrategia logra muy altos retornos por invertir en fondos de volatilidad inversa. Desde 2011 hasta hoy el rendimiento anual fue de más del 55% por año. Durante el año presente el rendimiento acumulado es del 27%. El ratio de Sharpe (una estimación del retorno por unidad de  riesgo) de 2,1 es un "valor sueño" y dudo que alguien puede mostrar una estrategia con una mayor proporción.La estrategia invierte en 4 ETF diferentes: Mercado de acciones de Estados Unidos Bonos del Tesoro Volatilidad Inversa Equivalente a Efectivo

Short Volatility: A short analysis of the actual ZIV performance after the July 2014 stock market selloff

By | January 1st, 2017|

This monthly premium of being short volatility is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green VIX chart. Every spike corresponds to a fear spike of the investors. During such spikes we also have smaller market corrections. During these market corrections ZIV [...]

Hedging Portfolio: Comparison of TMV, TMF or EDV

By | January 1st, 2017|

TMF is by far not so good as TMV short for hedging portfolio. Here is the 12 month comparison. While all treasuries had quite big losses of about -7%, a shortTMV position was flat over the year. I think for IRA accounts the better and saver way of hedging would be a part of the investment in the Bond rotation. This one should make 10-15% per year and is also [...]

Avoid DrawDown: TMV hedging and timing

By | January 1st, 2017|

TMV should stay in place for quite some long time, and it´s a great investment to harvest time decay and avoid drawdown. The big tapering drawdowns of 2013 are past history. You don't need to look daily at the TMV short hedge. Just keep it. TMV is a loser and if you stay short it will be a long term winner. It should return about 10-15% per year. How to [...]

Inversion en ETF Estrategia de rotación de mercados mundiales: 36.7% anual desde 2003

By | January 1st, 2017|

La siguiente estrategia es una de nuestros favoritos, que muchos de nuestros amigos, clientes y nosotros mismos hemos utilizado ya por algunos años. La Estrategia de Rotación de Mercados Globales (“Global Market Rotation Strategy”, GMR) La Estrategia GMR rota mensualmente entre 6 ETF diferentes. El rendimiento histórico calculado de esta estrategia desde 2003 es bastante impresionante. Rendimiento anual (CAGR) = 36.7% (S&P 500 = 8,4%) Rendimiento total a partir de 2003 = 3924% (S&P 500 = 134%) 69% de las operaciones mensuales tienen una rentabilidad positivaLos mercados globales utilizados y ETF correspondientes son: Estados Unidos Europa Mercados emergentes América Latina Región del Pacífico

The new enhanced Bond Rotation Strategy with adaptive allocation

By | January 1st, 2017|

On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) ( Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy with adaptive allocation. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here:, I think it is very important to constantly validate and improve any investment strategy. Markets change, ETFs change even we ourselves grow and learn. I am [...]

‘Hell on Fire’: The 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy

By | January 1st, 2017|

Summary: -Aggressive leveraged version of our previously published Universal Investment Strategy -Variable SPY-TLT allocations dynamically adapted to the market conditions. -45% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 since 2002.Due to its simplicity and low correlation to the S&P 500, there is a continued interest in the UIS version that uses 3x leveraged ETFs: ETF SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF). Following the suggested nomenclature by Al from AAII SV - and to honor their interest, we call this version “Hell on fire”, which alludes to the high risk/return profile of the strategy. We will show ways to blend this strategy in a well-balanced and risk-optimized portfolio as to overcome the generally negative perception of private investors towards leveraged ETF.

401k investment: Sleep Well Bond Rotation Strategy – Annual performance of 15%

By | January 1st, 2017|

You can employ this strategy perfectly in your 401k investment, because it outperforms the stock market by more than double and this with one third of the volatility or risk. This means that since 2008, the return to risk ratio is about six times higher than an investment in the SPY ETF which tracks the S&P 500. Even this year, when many investors are selling bonds due to increasing yields through FED [...]

The SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS)

By | January 1st, 2017|

Introduction to the SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) This paper discusses the simple but effective method of using adaptive allocations between stock market ETFs and Treasuries to assemble a simple yet smart Investment Strategy. This method has been developed to replace the 100% switching used in normal rotation strategies like the Maximum Yield Rotation and the Global Market Rotation strategies. The real world is just not a 100% “risk on” or [...]

A Global Market Rotation Strategy with an annual performance of 41.4% since 2003

By | January 1st, 2017|

The following ETF strategy is one of my favorite rotation strategies, which many of my friends, customers and I use now for some years. The Global Market ETF Rotation Strategy (GMR) The GMR Strategy switches between 6 different ETF on a monthly basis. The back tested return of this strategy since 2003 is quite impressive. Annual performance (CAGR) = 41.4% (S&P500=8.4%) Total performance since 2003 = 3740% (S&P500=134%) 69% of [...]

Harvesting Contango: How To Build An ETF Rotation Strategy With More Than 50% Annualized Returns

By | January 1st, 2017|

In this paper I want to explain the readers how the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy of is built. This strategy harvests the so called Contango. Harvesting Contango by investing in inverse volatility This Strategy harvests contango and achieves very high returns investing in inverse volatility. From 2011 to today the annual performance was more than 70% per year. Year to date the performance is 40.9%. The Sharpe Ratio (Return/Risk) of [...]

The power of diversification: Portfolio Diversification with Logical Invest Strategies

By | January 1st, 2017|

Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.

What is a hedge and why does it makes sense to do it?

By | January 1st, 2017|

A hedge is always an investment which is negatively correlated to the main investment. When the main investment goes down, the hedge should go up and if the main investment goes up, then the hedge normally goes down. It is clear, that we like the first, which is to reduce the draw downs with a hedge, but not to reduce the gains. If you have a stock portfolio, then the [...]

Backtest: New adaptive Global Market Rotation backtester

By | January 1st, 2017|

I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtest software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS and GMRS. Since 2017, QuantTrader, this backtest software is now also available for retail and institutional investors, see here. QuantTrader, backtest software now available for retail and institutional investors Below [...]

Invest in VIX volatility using ZIV

By | January 1st, 2017|

Update January 2017: The recent performance of investing in volatility can be seen here. You are probably wondering how we could achieve yearly performances of more than 50% with some of our rotation strategies. The reason is that the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and the Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy are investing in inverse volatility. Invest in inverse Volatility So, here are now some facts to show you why I [...]

The Gold Currency Investment Strategy

By | January 1st, 2017|

  • The Gold-Currency strategy trades Gold vs 3 major currencies.
  • It is based on the negative correlation between Gold and the U.S. dollar Index.
  • It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.
  • It can be traded using ETFs, Futures or even low-margin/low-cost FX pairs.

The World Country Top 4 ETF rotation strategy – A way to fight rising rates and a stalling US stock market

By | January 1st, 2017|

Summary of World Country Top 4 ETF rotation strategy • The World Country Top 4 ETF rotation strategy is a strongly momentum driven strategy creating high returns. • The strategy profits from a maximum global diversification. • With a 20-year CAGR of 20.7% the strategy has a much lower volatility and lower risk than an S&P 500 investment. In my last articles I described various momentum ETF rotation strategies with variable [...]

Volatility Premium – Why we invest in ZIV and not in XIV

By | January 1st, 2017|

Several times I have been asked why we invest in ZIV (inverse mid-term volatility) and not in XIV (inverse front month volatility) in our Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and in the "Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy" to harvest the volatility premium. Harvest Volatility Premium smartly After all, front month VIX Future contango is about 2-3x bigger then medium term contango. At the moment XIV profits from nearly 9% monthly VIX Futures contango. [...]

The new reviewed Bond Rotation Strategy

By | January 1st, 2017|

From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation, to make is more suitable as IRA or 401k Investment Strategy. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: AGG - iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) BOND - PIMCO Total Return ETF CWB - SPDR Barclays Convertible [...]

Permanent Portfolio – Will We Ever Kill The Bug?

By | January 1st, 2017|

An analysis of Harry Browne´s Permanent Portfolio and further enhancements towards:  A Permanent Portfolio ETF Rotation Strategy employing Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Volatility Targeting. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies like the permanent portfolio, too. Vintage "all-weather" investment strategies are often simple, easy to execute and give amble 'out-of-sample' data. In other words one can see how they performed in life years after they have been proposed. And like [...]

Risk Management using Timed Hedging – Avoid DrawDowns

By | January 1st, 2017|

As you perhaps know I have invested all my money in my own strategies, and I and my family (the best wife of all and 4 nice children) are living from the return of these investments. So, I just cannot afford to lose much money in market corrections. Therefore I always try to improve the strategies to lower the risk of major losses through hedging. Timed Hedging The new "Timed [...]

Fail-Safe Investing – The “straight” BUG with no leverage

By | January 1st, 2017|

In a previous post we introduced our new investment strategy, the BUG. There has been a lot of interest but also some concerns when it comes to using leverage. We are introducing a version of the BUG for non-leveraged accounts.In this version we allocate amongst 6 ETFs: SPY, TLT, GLS, CWB, TIP and PCY. Again as in the original strategy we use these heuristics: Timing (using a simple average rule), Volatility Targeting (we reduce exposure to more volatile ETFs), Momentum (we reduce the size of the worst performer and add to the rest). We don’t employ short term mean reversion and we only trade up to 4 assets.

New Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy backtest charts

By | January 1st, 2017|

Here are two backtests charts of the new MYRS strategy with adaptive allocation, now also suitable for your retirement account. The annual return of the old and the new strategy is more or less the same. During low volatility markets, the return of the new strategy is probably slightly lower, however during difficult volatile years like 2014, the return of the new strategy is significantly higher and the drawdowns and the risk [...]

Build Custom ETF Portfolios: Mid Year Review Portfolio Builder

By | January 1st, 2017|

For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”. The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.

A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation

By | January 1st, 2017|

Update: See the current performance of this ETF investment strategy here. A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation The GMR strategy performed well during the last 10 years. Especially during years with a strong trend in one of the 5 world markets, this strategy was able to switch early to the best ETF and stay invested until another market ETF took the lead. A known problem [...]

The end of EOM? Strategy and re-balancing during en-of-month

By | January 1st, 2017|

Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month (EOM). EOM still effective? Here is an EOM example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. EOM investing has been well documented in academic papers as well as blogs. The [...]

Update Portfolio Builder: Now including Universal Investment Strategy with 3x leverage

By | January 1st, 2017|

By request of several followers, we have now included the version with 3x leverage of the Universal Investment Strategy using synthetic SPXL and TMF data from 2002. Portfolio Builder now with leverage We're about to publish a full article on this exciting option for this weekend, but want to pre-alert you about this upcoming adition. While this is a very aggressive strategy with leverage, it blends very nicely with a [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for December 2016

By | December 1st, 2016|

Special Topic: IRA investment using QuantTrader Logical Invest Investment Outlook December 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 30.27% return. The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.73% return.   The NASDAQ 100 strategy with 15.19% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 9.77%, year-to-date. NEWS: Enhancement of the Treasury hedge in our strategies (link).   Market comment: Presidents change, markets change and so do we. As our subscribers know well, Treasuries have been a cornerstone of our strategies. For the [...]

Enhancement of the Treasury hedge in our strategies

By | December 1st, 2016|

For many years, most of our strategies used long term Treasuries (TLT, TMF) as a hedge against market corrections. These Treasuries have been a safe haven asset with negative correlation to the stock market and have been used successfully to reduce the risk/volatility of our strategies. With rising rates and inflation, long term treasuries lose a part of their value as a safe haven asset. Their hedging value depends mainly [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for November 2016

By | November 1st, 2016|

Special Topic: IRA Investments using QuantTrader, our Backtest Software Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 32.61% return. The Leveraged Universal strategy with 21.42% return.   The World Top 4 with 17.66% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 5.87%, year-to-date. Market comment: Recent surveys show that fund managers have increased cash positions1 while outflows from equity funds are at historically high levels2. From a contrarian point of view this could [...]

QuantTrader – The Swiss army tool now also for individual investors

By | October 4th, 2016|

Dear Subscribers,We are happy to announce that the full QuantTrader version is now available to individual investors for $150 a month or $1500 per year.We will cross-subsidize a bit with the high interest we´ve received from institutional investors like RIA and hedge-fund managers so far. Fair play requires that subscribers who manage their own or other people's assets above $1m subscribe to the institutional offering.QuantTrader is a fine piece of art mixed [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for October 2016

By | October 1st, 2016|

Special topic: Passive Investment Logical Invest Investment Outlook October 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 36.47% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 36.37% return.  The World Top 4 with 19.82% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.74%, year-to-date. News: Introducing Richard´s Corner, a new Logical Invest User Community, moderated by Richard Manley. Richard is  a long time user and critical commenter of our services. Subjects range from making the best of your 401K , using [...]

Introducing Richard’s Corner – The Logical Invest User Community

By | September 29th, 2016|

A vivid and open exchange between the user community and the team behind Logical Invest has always been a main focus and motivation for us. Beside coming up with new innovative investment strategies, we feel we can add value by creating a space for exchanging on investment practices, money and wealth management and the tools needed for getting it up & running in real life.We´re therefore delighted to announce a [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for September 2016

By | September 1st, 2016|

Special topic this month: Passive Investments Logical Invest Investment Outlook September 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 39.09% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.04% return.  The World Top 4 with 20.51% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.73%, year-to-date. New tools: The Online Custom Portfolio Builder The Consolidated Signals tool. Market comment: The summer market showed strength compared to its seasonal bias. The old saying "Sell in May and go away" did not hold [...]

Easy Investing in a multi-strategy Markowitz optimized Portfolio

By | August 30th, 2016|

In our recent post we´ve shared some powerful options to design a well-balanced portfolio of several Logical Invest strategies to achieve a preset portfolio objective using Modern portfolio theory (MPT) techniques developed by Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz. Here, we review the steps to achieving an optimized portfolio with our tools and summarize some portfolio options to illustrate use of our updated tool set:(picture for mobile use)These options might serve as a starting point [...]

QuantTrader portfolio trading software – Backtest and run trading strategies right on your desktop

By | August 15th, 2016|

Logical Invest's QuantTrader Software A QuantTrader subscription is our state-of-the-art solution for professional investors. You can run our QuantTrader software right on your PC. Logical Invest QuantTrader QuantTrader is C++ based proprietary software used to calculate and backtest the Logical Invest investment strategies. All Logical-Invest strategies are included. The user has the ability to tweak the parameters of the strategies to their needs. They can perform full backtests of a strategy for as far back as data [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for August 2016

By | July 30th, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook August 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 40.6% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.3% return.  The World Top 4 with 20.6% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.6%, year-to-date. News: Our in-house software is available for licensing to professional clients. We are looking for registered investment advisers and wealth managers to partner with.   Market comment: Sentiment across mainstream media remains cautious despite the S&P500 index breaking to a new all time [...]

Correlation – Still the grand lady of Portfolio Diversification

By | July 13th, 2016|

It has been now 18 months since our post on “The power of diversification: Portfolios of Logical Invest Strategies”. Back then our main argument for diversification using a robust portfolio of several of our strategies was that “diversification is ‘a rare free lunch’, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch”.Several new strategies have been published since then, among them the “NASDAQ 100” strategy, the “Gold-Currency” strategy and our “Hell on Fire”, the 3x leveraged Universal Investment strategy. At the same time, we went through the bumpy start into 2016 and most recently the waves created by the BREXIT referendum.Does our stated hypothesis of formerly presented portfolios still hold true? How have the individual components performed, and most importantly, have they added value through low correlation? Have new optimum portfolios emerged since then?

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for July 2016

By | July 1st, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook July 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 29.4% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 24.6% return.  The World Top 4 with 12.6% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.82%, year-to-date. Market comment: The big event for June was the British E.U. membership referendum. Contrary to widespread expectations, Britain's vote was in favour of leaving the Eurozone. Anyone trading on the 23rd experienced unprecedented volatility as the VIX first crashed on expectations of the "remain" camp [...]

All Strategies Positive for the Year

By | June 16th, 2016|

  For the first time in 2016 every single strategy we offer shows positive results.The average return of our strategies is 8.5%, compared to 2.7% for the SPY.Ten of eleven them are outperforming the S&P500 etf (SPY). Returns range from from a low 1.9% for GMR to a high 23% for our leveraged Universal Strategy. Some interesting observations:The Nasdaq 100 strategy has performed exceptionally well since it's introduction. In the chart you can compare back-tested results  to 'live trading' results from the time the strategy was offered to [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for June 2016

By | June 1st, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook June 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.1% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 16% return.  The Nasdaq 100 with 7.58% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.46%, year-to-date. Market comment: This year, the old saying "sell in May and go away" seems to express many financial writers and investors. The March-April excitement has been replaced by fear and caution: A possible June rate hike by the Fed, the June [...]

Logical-Invest review @ Daily Fintech

By | May 4th, 2016|

With a lot of hype about FinTech these days, we´re happy to have received a positive review from one of the most important FinTech blogs. What is FinTech? Here the definition of FinTech by Investopedia: Fintech is a portmanteau of financial technology that describes an emerging financial services sector in the 21st century. Originally, the term applied to technology applied to the back-end of established consumer and trade financial institutions. [...]

Portfollio Builder Excel

By | April 27th, 2016|

We have a new updated Excel version of our Portfolio Builder. All Strategy subscribers can download a copy from their 'Consolidated Signals" page: tool is provided 'as-is'. Feel free to customize as you see fit. The sheet will download the latest return data of our strategies from our server and provide basic equity visualization, strategy-level statistics as well as a visual chart of the risk vs return topology of each strategy.You can create your [...]

Logical Invest at the Silicon Valley chapter of the investors AAII

By | April 17th, 2016|

What an audience and what an experience! Thanks to the investors AAII Silicon Valley! As announced some weeks ago, on April 11 we hosted our first conference at the Silicon Valley chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors AAII in San Jose, CA. Sharing and discussing some of the topics which are close to our heart with an incredible audience in live mode was such a great opportunity we [...]

Portfolio optimization: The all new Portfolio Builder

By | March 24th, 2016|

  From individual Strategies to Portfolio Optimization Based on the interest of our followers and our own investment philosophy, we have gradually evolved from offering single quantitative strategies towards blends or portfolios of strategies. The way we visualize our own development cycle might be best summarized in a chart: Where are we on this path and where are we heading? We believe we have now a stable set of 'core-strategies', [...]

Logical Invest meets AAII Silicon Valley Chapter

By | March 21st, 2016|

We‘re happy to have been invited to host a presentation at the Silicon Valley Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) on April 11, 2015. We obviously extend this invitation to whomever is around, join us for this first opportunity to meet in person. The presentation to AAII will especially focus on how to construct your self-managed portfolio using ETF and Mutual Fund Rotation Strategies, how to build [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for March 2016

By | March 1st, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook March 2016 Market comment: February was another high volatility month, however it now looks like the world markets are slowly recovering. Here is a Year-to-Date chart of the world markets together with the defensive TLT (long duration Treasury) and GLD (Gold) ETFs. Last year, the normal inverse correlation of both TLT and GLD to equities failed to materialize for quite a long time. We had several months where [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for February 2016

By | January 31st, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook February 2016Market comment: Equities sold off aggressively in the beginning of the year making this January one of the worst of the last 20 years. The market managed to start a small rebound just in the last few days leaving traders pondering if this is another temporary correction or the start of a bear market. In absence of evidence of a more pronounced global economic slowdown, the recent [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for January 2016

By | January 3rd, 2016|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook January 2016   Market comment: With December 2015 behind us, we have now ended one of the most challenging investing years. The US stock market ended flat for the year. All other assets like precious metals, bonds, commodities and emerging markets gave negative returns. For the past 20 years, including the 2008 subprime crisis year, we always had at least one asset group going up considerably (10% [...]

The American Association of Individual Investors 2015 Conference

By | November 4th, 2015|

Frank Grossmann and Alexander Horn will be attending the 2015 American Association of Individual Investors conference (AAII conference) in Las Vegas and they would love to meet you there. Our workshop is on Monday, November 9 and will have the following topics:   With hundreds of ETFs available, how can the individual investor successfully manage a portfolio? Logical Invest has developed algorithms that create alpha and reduce market exposure with simple, well-researched [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for November 2015

By | October 31st, 2015|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2015 September and October have traditionally been the most volatile months of the year. This year was no exception. Investors were shaken by sharp declines in the equity markets as volatility returned with a vengeance.  The simultaneous fall in equities, bonds, commodities and foreign currencies have left a lot of portfolios with flat or negative returns for the year. Many investors are now wondering on [...]

Logical Invest at the Annual AAII Conference 2015 in Las Vegas – Save the day!

By | August 9th, 2015|

We’re delighted to be invited as exhibitor and speaker to the 2015 Annual Conference of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) from Nov 7-9, 2015 at Las Vegas.Frank and I will be attending the conference and we would love to meet you there. Our workshop on Monday, November 9 will have the following topics:

August – The bigger picture on investments

By | August 6th, 2015|

We often we concentrate on U.S. indexes and Treasuries and miss the bigger picture in our investments. Here are some interesting charts to remind us of the current state of the market and keep track of our investments. Keep in mind that unlike equities, forex and commodity prices do have a strong impact on the real economy and imbalances are hard to bear by the respective economies, thus affecting our [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for July 2015

By | July 1st, 2015|

This is the monthly monthly Logical-Invest newsletter for July 2015.  Strategy performance overview: symbol close year to date % ▴ 3 month % 1 month % 1 day % 60 day volatility 60 day correlation 3 month Sharpe 12 month Sharpe 36 month Sharpe WORLD-TOP4 284.82 8.27 0.85 -1.21 0.68 12.57 0.69 0.43 3.01 3.24 MYRS 615.56 5.11 1.02 -1.80 0.53 14.39 0.69 0.42 1.11 2.85 GMRS 4296.50 3.77 -3.35 -1.76 0.12 [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for June 2015

By | May 30th, 2015|

This is the monthly monthly Logical-Invest newsletter for June 2015. From now on this newsletter will replace the individual comments for the single strategies. The newsletter includes a strategy performance overview which can help you to switch between strategies. The same table is available if you login to your logical invest account at "My Account" and select the strategy performance menu. The table on the website is a dynamic table and will be [...]

New Beta Tool: Easy Consolidated Signals for your “All Strategies” Custom Portfolio Now Available

By | March 28th, 2015|

UPDATE: The tool is now available following this link     “What? Another post about tools and infrastructure? Thought Logical Invest is going to show me the next 21st Century ETF Investment Strategy!”     Yes, I know there have been plenty of posts regarding new features on our site, new portfolio options, new charting capabilities, and new portfolio builder features. Plus plenty of teasers of what is coming up [...]

Stocks, Bonds and Gold ETF Down

By | March 8th, 2015|

This past Friday (3/6/2015) was a difficult day for most portfolios that are long any major asset excluding the dollar index and volatility. Stocks, bonds and gold ETF declined. SPY was down 1.4%, TLT fell 2.2%, GLD (Gold ETF) also down 2.7%. We got some reactions from some of our subscribers asking if the models are failing, especially regarding the Gold ETF. So let's put things in perspective. Is this common? As you [...]

Did you say you want more Charts? Dynamic Performance Charts for ETF Rotation Investment

By | February 6th, 2015|

We make it as easy as possible to analyze our ETF Rotation Investment strategies, how they perform in bull markets, bear markets, and any time period you want.   How did they do vs a benchmark? What were the model signals?   How are the ETF Rotation Investment strategies doing lately?  We don't make you subscribe to get this information, we make it publicly available. Our new charts are now more sophisticated and [...]

ETF Investment Strategies: We have been busy at Logical Invest, and we’ve only just begun

By | February 1st, 2015|

The last few months have been exciting here at Logical Invest, and if you have missed some of it, let me catch you up what we´ve been doing to deliver the best ETF Investment Strategies: In November we expanded our partnership and added website tools and services.   Our strategies had an excellent 2014, reviewed here.    While the overall market had a rough January, we guided our subscribers towards making nearly +5% in [...]

Investment Performance – YTD Logical Invest Helping Investors Win the Battle

By | January 22nd, 2015|

The markets have been choppy, investment performance generally also.  It is rough out there . . . currency wars and central bank interventions continue, while global growth is questioned. Investment Performance We are proud to work hard to help investors win the battle.   Our strategies continue to outperform with lower risk.   YTD through Jan 22, an equal weight blend of all of our strategies  performance is up +3.6%. Thanks [...]