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The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for December 2016

By | December 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook December 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 30.27% return. The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.73% return.   The NASDAQ 100 strategy with 15.19% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 9.77%, year-to-date. NEWS: Enhancement of the Treasury hedge in our strategies [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for November 2016

By | November 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Maximum Yield strategy with 32.61% return.The Leveraged Universal strategy with 21.42% return.  The World Top 4 with 17.66% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 5.87%, year-to-date.Market comment:Recent surveys show that fund managers have increased cash positions1 while outflows from equity [...]

QuantTrader – The Swiss army tool now also for individual investors

By | October 4th, 2016|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|

Dear Subscribers,We are happy to announce that the full QuantTrader version is now available to individual investors for $150 a month or $1500 per year.We will cross-subsidize a bit with the high interest we´ve received from institutional investors like RIA and hedge-fund [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for October 2016

By | October 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook October 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 36.47% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 36.37% return. The World Top 4 with 19.82% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.74%, year-to-date.News:Introducing Richard´s Corner, a new Logical Invest User Community, moderated by Richard Manley. Richard is  a [...]

Introducing Richard’s Corner – The Logical Invest User Community

By | September 29th, 2016|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|

A vivid and open exchange between the user community and the team behind Logical Invest has always been a main focus and motivation for us. Beside coming up with new innovative investment strategies, we feel we can add value by [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for September 2016

By | September 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook September 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 39.09% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.04% return.  The World Top 4 with 20.51% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.73%, year-to-date. New tools: The Online Custom Portfolio Builder  The Consolidated Signals tool. [...]

Easy Investing in a multi-strategy Markowitz optimized Portfolio

By | August 30th, 2016|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|

In our recent post we´ve shared some powerful options to design a well-balanced portfolio of several Logical Invest strategies to achieve a preset portfolio objective using Modern portfolio theory (MPT) techniques developed by Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz. Here, we review the steps to [...]

QuantTrader portfolio trading software – Backtest and run trading strategies right on your desktop

By | August 15th, 2016|Categories: Tools, Wealth Management|

Logical Invest's QuantTrader SoftwareA QuantTrader subscription is our state-of-the-art solution for professional investors. You can run our QuantTrader software right on your PC. Logical Invest QuantTrader QuantTrader is C++ based proprietary software used to calculate and backtest the Logical Invest investment strategies. All Logical-Invest [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for August 2016

By | July 30th, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook August 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 40.6% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.3% return. The World Top 4 with 20.6% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.6%, year-to-date.News:Our in-house software is available for licensing to professional clients.We are looking for registered investment advisers and [...]

Correlation – Still the grand lady of Portfolio Diversification

By | July 13th, 2016|Categories: Tools, Wealth Management|

It has been now 18 months since our post on “The power of diversification: Portfolios of Logical Invest Strategies”. Back then our main argument for diversification using a robust portfolio of several of our strategies was that “diversification is ‘a rare free lunch’, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch”.Several new strategies have been published since then, among them the “NASDAQ 100” strategy, the “Gold-Currency” strategy and our “Hell on Fire”, the 3x leveraged Universal Investment strategy. At the same time, we went through the bumpy start into 2016 and most recently the waves created by the BREXIT referendum.Does our stated hypothesis of formerly presented portfolios still hold true? How have the individual components performed, and most importantly, have they added value through low correlation? Have new optimum portfolios emerged since then?

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for July 2016

By | July 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook July 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 29.4% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 24.6% return. The World Top 4 with 12.6% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.82%, year-to-date.Market comment:The big event for June was the British E.U. membership referendum. Contrary to widespread expectations, [...]

All Strategies Positive for the Year

By | June 16th, 2016|Categories: Market Environment|

  For the first time in 2016 every single strategy we offer shows positive results.The average return of our strategies is 8.5%, compared to 2.7% for the SPY.Ten of eleven them are outperforming the S&P500 etf (SPY). Returns range from from a low 1.9% for GMR to a high 23% for our leveraged Universal Strategy. Some [...]

The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for June 2016

By | June 1st, 2016|Categories: Newsletter|

Logical Invest Investment Outlook June 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.1% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 16% return. The Nasdaq 100 with 7.58% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.46%, year-to-date.Market comment:This year, the old saying "sell in May and go away" seems to express many financial [...]

Portfollio Builder Excel

By | April 27th, 2016|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools|Tags: , |

We have a new updated Excel version of our Portfolio Builder. All Strategy subscribers can download a copy from their 'Consolidated Signals" page: http://logical-invest.com/blog/strategy-signals-consolidated/The tool is provided 'as-is'. Feel free to customize as you see fit. The sheet will download the latest [...]

The Gold Currency Investment Strategy

By | December 28th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , |

  • The Gold-Currency strategy trades Gold vs 3 major currencies.
  • It is based on the negative correlation between Gold and the U.S. dollar Index.
  • It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.
  • It can be traded using ETFs, Futures or even low-margin/low-cost FX pairs.

The American Association of Individual Investors 2015 Conference

By | November 4th, 2015|Categories: Market Environment|

Frank Grossmann and Alexander Horn will be attending the 2015 AAII conference in Las Vegas and they would love to meet you there. Our workshop is on Monday, November 9 and will have the following topics:With hundreds of ETFs available, how can [...]

The NASDAQ 100 Meta-Strategy

By | October 13th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , |

  • Intelligent Algorithms run two prallel sub-strategies. 
  • Meta- layer chooses between the two sub-strategies based on current market conditions.
  • Variable allocation to Treasuries provides protection from large drawdowns.

This strategy is a good fit for investors that want to invest intelligently in the U.S. equity market as well as for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based growth strategy.

The strategy can also complement our existing strategies and can work well with our more conservative strategies like BRS (bond rotation), the BUG or with non-U.S. equity strategies like World Top 4.

Logical Invest at the Annual AAII Conference 2015 in Las Vegas – Save the day!

By | August 9th, 2015|Categories: Market Environment, Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|

We’re delighted to be invited as exhibitor and speaker to the 2015 Annual Conference of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) from Nov 7-9, 2015 at Las Vegas.Frank and I will be attending the conference and we would love to meet you there. Our workshop on Monday, November 9 will have the following topics:

Mid Year Review Portfolio Builder

By | June 27th, 2015|Categories: Market Environment, Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|

For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”. The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.

The World Country Top 4 ETF strategy – A way to fight rising rates and a stalling US stock market

By | May 28th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development|

Summary• The World Country Top 4 strategy is a strongly momentum driven strategy creating high returns.• The strategy profits from a maximum global diversification.• With a 20-year CAGR of 20.7% the strategy has a much lower volatility and lower risk [...]

Logical-Invest review @ Daily Fintech

By | May 4th, 2015|Categories: Market Environment, Wealth Management|

            A review of Logical Invest by Efi Pylarinou @ Daily Fintech.  "Logical-Invest offers actionable portfolio solutions: Simple and Intelligent" "They provide you with 100% actionable advise." "You can pick a monthly subscription or an annual subscription [...]

Logical Invest at the Silicon Valley chapter of the AAII

By | April 17th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , |

What an audience and what an experience! Thanks AAII Silicon Valley! As announced some weeks ago, on April 11 we hosted our first conference at the Silicon Valley chapter of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) in San Jose, [...]

‘Hell on Fire’ – Part I: The 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy

By | April 3rd, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , |

Summary: -Aggressive leveraged version of our previously published Universal Investment Strategy -Variable SPY-TLT allocations dynamically adapted to the market conditions. -45% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 since 2002.Due to its simplicity and low correlation to the S&P 500, there is a continued interest in the UIS version that uses 3x leveraged ETFs: ETF SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF). Following the suggested nomenclature by Al from AAII SV - and to honor their interest, we call this version “Hell on fire”, which alludes to the high risk/return profile of the strategy. We will show ways to blend this strategy in a well-balanced and risk-optimized portfolio as to overcome the generally negative perception of private investors towards leveraged ETF.

Update Portfolio Builder: Now including 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (SPXL/TMF)

By | April 1st, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , |

By request of several followers, we have now included the 3 times leveraged version of the Universal Investment Strategy using synthetic SPXL and TMF data from 2002. We're about to publish a full article on this exciting option for this [...]

New Beta Tool: Easy Consolidated Signals for your “All Strategies” Custom Portfolio Now Available

By | March 28th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , |

    “What? Another post about tools and infrastructure? Thought Logical Invest is going to show me the next 21st Century ETF Investment Strategy!”     Yes, I know there have been plenty of posts regarding new features on our [...]

Watch your money grow while on the go: The Logical Invest Mobile App

By | March 26th, 2015|Categories: Tools, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

Subscribers have suggested a mobile solution to quickly track our strategy performances while on the go.  Something that would be easy to load on mobile devices and without a bit of fizzle to properly see in smaller screens. Well, your [...]

Introducing the all new fixed weight Portfolio Optimization Builder

By | March 24th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Tools, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , |

Our aim is to offer our subscribers and followers valuable and easy-to-use tools to define and track their portfolios of Logical Invest strategies in one place. Since Frank started Logical Invest in 2013, and based on your constant feedback, we [...]

Logical Invest meets AAII Silicon Valley Chapter

By | March 21st, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|

We‘re happy to have been invited to host a presentation at the Silicon Valley Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors on April 11, 2015. We obviously extend this invitation to whomever is around, join us for this first [...]

Stocks, Bonds and Gold Down

By | March 8th, 2015|Categories: Market Environment, Strategy Development|Tags: , , , |

This past Friday (3/6/2015) was a difficult day for most portfolios that are long any major asset excluding the dollar index and volatility. Stocks, bonds and gold declined. SPY was down 1.4%, TLT fell 2.2%, GLD also down 2.7%. We got some reactions [...]

The new enhanced Bond Rotation Strategy with adaptive bond allocation

By | February 19th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development|

On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1845022-the-sleep-well-bond-rotation-strategy-which-has-returned-15-percent-per-year-since-2008). Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here: [...]

Comparison of possible ZIV replacements ETFs in the MYRS strategy

By | January 15th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development|

Here is a comparison of different ZIV replacement ETFs in the MYRS strategy. Going long ZIV is the most simple way to execute the strategy. ZIV is in fact an inverse ETF, so even if ZIV does not have leverage, ZIV needs to [...]

The power of diversification: Portfolios of Logical Invest Strategies

By | January 10th, 2015|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , |

Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.

New Bond Rotation Strategie with adaptive allocation

By | December 28th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|

From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: [...]

The “straight” BUG: The BUG Investment Strategy with no leverage

By | December 18th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

In a previous post we introduced our new investment strategy, the BUG. There has been a lot of interest but also some concerns when it comes to using leverage. We are introducing a version of the BUG for non-leveraged accounts.In this version we allocate amongst 6 ETFs: SPY, TLT, GLS, CWB, TIP and PCY. Again as in the original strategy we use these heuristics: Timing (using a simple average rule), Volatility Targeting (we reduce exposure to more volatile ETFs), Momentum (we reduce the size of the worst performer and add to the rest). We don’t employ short term mean reversion and we only trade up to 4 assets.

Will We Ever Kill The Bug?

By | December 8th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , |

There is something very attractive about vintage items that just won’t die. They just keep coming back. Same philosophy but better up-to-date technology. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies, too. Vintage strategies are often simple, easy to execute and [...]

The SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS)

By | November 25th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , |

Introduction This paper discusses the simple but effective method of using adaptive allocations between stock market ETFs and Treasuries. This method has been developed to replace the 100% switching used in normal rotation strategies like the Maximum Yield Rotation and [...]

New website feedback & improvements

By | November 24th, 2014|Categories: Market Environment|Tags: , , , |

Thanks for the great feedback and hints for improvements on our new website during the last days! We are working on getting your recommendations implemented and want to share some of the updates and questions we received: Custom Portfolio Builder: [...]

New adaptive Global Market Rotation backtester

By | November 20th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , |

I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtester software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS [...]

New Expanded Logical Invest Website

By | November 16th, 2014|Categories: Market Environment|Tags: , , , , , |

Welcome to the Expanded Logical-Invest We are excited to announce that Logical-Invest is expanding its research and modeling team and capabilities, incorporating four lead partners and supporting staff.   This enables us to accelerate the development of advanced adaptive market strategies [...]

New Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy backtest charts

By | November 6th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , |

Here are two backtests charts of the new MYRS strategy with adaptive allocation. The annual return of the old and the new strategy is more or less the same. During low volatility markets, the return of the new strategy is probably slightly [...]

A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF allocation

By | November 4th, 2014|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , |

A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF allocation The GMR strategy performed well during the last 10 years. Especially during years with a strong trend in one of the 5 world markets, this strategy was able to [...]

A short analysis of the actual ZIV performance after the July 2014 stock market selloff

By | October 12th, 2014|Categories: Market Environment|Tags: , , , , , , |

This monthly premium is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green [...]

TMV hedging and timing

By | October 12th, 2014|Categories: Hedging, Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , |

TMV should stay in place for quite some long time. The big tapering drawdowns of 2013 are past history. You don't need to look daily at the TMV short hedge. Just keep it. TMV is a loser and if you [...]

What is a hedge and why does it makes sense to do it?

By | March 4th, 2014|Categories: Hedging, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , |

A hedge is always an investment which is negatively correlated to the main investment. When the main investment goes down, the hedge should go up and if the main investment goes up, then the hedge normally goes down. It is [...]

Risk Management using Timed Hedging

By | January 30th, 2014|Categories: Hedging, Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |

As you perhaps know I have invested all my money in my own strategies, and I and my family (the best wife of all and 4 nice children) are living from the return of these investments. So, I just cannot [...]

Strategies For Trading Inverse Volatility

By | December 7th, 2013|Categories: Hedging, Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |

In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask? Because since 2011, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. [...]

The Sleep Well Bond Rotation Strategy with an annual performance of 15% since 2008

By | November 7th, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , , , |

The "Bond Rotation Strategy" is another tool you can use alongside our Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRE), to maximize returns. These two strategies form the core of our investment strategies. We employ this strategy, because it outperforms the stock market [...]

Why we invest in ZIV (inverse mid-term volatility) and not in XIV (inverse front month volatility)

By | October 2nd, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , |

Several times I have been asked why we invest in ZIV (inverse mid-term volatility) and not in XIV (inverse front month volatility) in our Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and in the "Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy". After all, front month VIX Future [...]

Como construir una estrategia de inversión con un rendimiento de más del 50 por ciento al año?

By | September 17th, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , , |

En este artículo quiero explicar cómo funciona nuestra Estrategia de Rotación de Máximo Rendimiento "Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy". Esta estrategia logra muy altos retornos por invertir en fondos de volatilidad inversa. Desde 2011 hasta hoy el rendimiento anual fue de más del 55% por año. Durante el año presente el rendimiento acumulado es del 27%. El ratio de Sharpe (una estimación del retorno por unidad de  riesgo) de 2,1 es un "valor sueño" y dudo que alguien puede mostrar una estrategia con una mayor proporción.La estrategia invierte en 4 ETF diferentes: Mercado de acciones de Estados Unidos Bonos del Tesoro Volatilidad Inversa Equivalente a Efectivo

How To Build An ETF Rotation Strategy With More Than 50% Annualized Returns

By | September 17th, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , |

In this paper I want to explain the readers how the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy of www.logical-invest.com is built. This Strategy achieves very high returns investing in inverse volatility. From 2011 to today the annual performance was more than 70% per [...]

Comparison of VIX volatility and ZIV return

By | August 23rd, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , |

You are probably wondering how we could achieve yearly performances of more than 50% with some of our rotation strategies. The reason is that the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and the Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy are investing in inverse [...]

Estrategia de rotación de mercados mundiales: 36.7% anual desde 2003

By | August 20th, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development|Tags: , , , , , , , , |

La siguiente estrategia es una de nuestros favoritos, que muchos de nuestros amigos, clientes y nosotros mismos hemos utilizado ya por algunos años. La Estrategia de Rotación de Mercados Globales (“Global Market Rotation Strategy”, GMR) La Estrategia GMR rota mensualmente entre 6 ETF diferentes. El rendimiento histórico calculado de esta estrategia desde 2003 es bastante impresionante. Rendimiento anual (CAGR) = 36.7% (S&P 500 = 8,4%) Rendimiento total a partir de 2003 = 3924% (S&P 500 = 134%) 69% de las operaciones mensuales tienen una rentabilidad positivaLos mercados globales utilizados y ETF correspondientes son: Estados Unidos Europa Mercados emergentes América Latina Región del Pacífico

A Global Market Rotation Strategy with an annual performance of 41.4% since 2003

By | August 20th, 2013|Categories: Strategy Development, Wealth Management|Tags: , , , , , , , , , , |

The following strategy is one of my favorite rotation strategies, which many of my friends, customers and I use now for some years. The Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMR) The GMR Strategy switches between 6 different ETFs on a monthly [...]