Logical Invest Investment Outlook December 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Maximum Yield strategy with 30.27% return. The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.73% return. The NASDAQ 100 strategy with 15.19% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 9.77%, year-to-date. NEWS: Enhancement of the Treasury hedge in our strategies [...]
For many years, most of our strategies used long term Treasuries (TLT, TMF) as a hedge against market corrections. These Treasuries have been a safe haven asset with negative correlation to the stock market and have been used successfully to [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Maximum Yield strategy with 32.61% return.The Leveraged Universal strategy with 21.42% return. The World Top 4 with 17.66% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 5.87%, year-to-date.Market comment:Recent surveys show that fund managers have increased cash positions1 while outflows from equity [...]
Dear Subscribers,We are happy to announce that the full QuantTrader version is now available to individual investors for $150 a month or $1500 per year.We will cross-subsidize a bit with the high interest we´ve received from institutional investors like RIA and hedge-fund [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook October 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 36.47% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 36.37% return. The World Top 4 with 19.82% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.74%, year-to-date.News:Introducing Richard´s Corner, a new Logical Invest User Community, moderated by Richard Manley. Richard is a [...]
A vivid and open exchange between the user community and the team behind Logical Invest has always been a main focus and motivation for us. Beside coming up with new innovative investment strategies, we feel we can add value by [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook September 2016 Our top year-to-date strategies: The Leveraged Universal strategy with 39.09% return. The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.04% return. The World Top 4 with 20.51% return. SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.73%, year-to-date. New tools: The Online Custom Portfolio Builder The Consolidated Signals tool. [...]
In our recent post we´ve shared some powerful options to design a well-balanced portfolio of several Logical Invest strategies to achieve a preset portfolio objective using Modern portfolio theory (MPT) techniques developed by Nobel Prize laureate Harry Markowitz. Here, we review the steps to [...]
Logical Invest's QuantTrader SoftwareA QuantTrader subscription is our state-of-the-art solution for professional investors. You can run our QuantTrader software right on your PC. Logical Invest QuantTrader QuantTrader is C++ based proprietary software used to calculate and backtest the Logical Invest investment strategies. All Logical-Invest [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook August 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 40.6% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 34.3% return. The World Top 4 with 20.6% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 7.6%, year-to-date.News:Our in-house software is available for licensing to professional clients.We are looking for registered investment advisers and [...]
It has been now 18 months since our post on “The power of diversification: Portfolios of Logical Invest Strategies”. Back then our main argument for diversification using a robust portfolio of several of our strategies was that “diversification is ‘a rare free lunch’, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch”.Several new strategies have been published since then, among them the “NASDAQ 100” strategy, the “Gold-Currency” strategy and our “Hell on Fire”, the 3x leveraged Universal Investment strategy. At the same time, we went through the bumpy start into 2016 and most recently the waves created by the BREXIT referendum.Does our stated hypothesis of formerly presented portfolios still hold true? How have the individual components performed, and most importantly, have they added value through low correlation? Have new optimum portfolios emerged since then?
Logical Invest Investment Outlook July 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 29.4% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 24.6% return. The World Top 4 with 12.6% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.82%, year-to-date.Market comment:The big event for June was the British E.U. membership referendum. Contrary to widespread expectations, [...]
For the first time in 2016 every single strategy we offer shows positive results.The average return of our strategies is 8.5%, compared to 2.7% for the SPY.Ten of eleven them are outperforming the S&P500 etf (SPY). Returns range from from a low 1.9% for GMR to a high 23% for our leveraged Universal Strategy. Some [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook June 2016Our top year-to-date strategies:The Leveraged Universal strategy with 17.1% return.The Maximum Yield strategy with 16% return. The Nasdaq 100 with 7.58% return.SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 3.46%, year-to-date.Market comment:This year, the old saying "sell in May and go away" seems to express many financial [...]
We have a new updated Excel version of our Portfolio Builder. All Strategy subscribers can download a copy from their 'Consolidated Signals" page: http://logical-invest.com/blog/strategy-signals-consolidated/The tool is provided 'as-is'. Feel free to customize as you see fit. The sheet will download the latest [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook March 2016Market comment:February was another high volatility month, however it now looks like the world markets are slowly recovering. Here is a Year-to-Date chart of the world markets together with the defensive TLT (long duration Treasury) and [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook February 2016Market comment: Equities sold off aggressively in the beginning of the year making this January one of the worst of the last 20 years. The market managed to start a small rebound just in the last few [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook January 2016 Market comment: With December 2015 behind us, we have now ended one of the most challenging investing years. The US stock market ended flat for the year. All other assets like precious metals, bonds, [...]
- The Gold-Currency strategy trades Gold vs 3 major currencies.
- It is based on the negative correlation between Gold and the U.S. dollar Index.
- It is an excellent addition to existing equity or bond portfolios as it holds very little correlation to either.
- It can be traded using ETFs, Futures or even low-margin/low-cost FX pairs.
Frank Grossmann and Alexander Horn will be attending the 2015 AAII conference in Las Vegas and they would love to meet you there. Our workshop is on Monday, November 9 and will have the following topics:With hundreds of ETFs available, how can [...]
Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2015 September and October have traditionally been the most volatile months of the year. This year was no exception. Investors were shaken by sharp declines in the equity markets as volatility returned with a vengeance. [...]
- Intelligent Algorithms run two prallel sub-strategies.
- Meta- layer chooses between the two sub-strategies based on current market conditions.
- Variable allocation to Treasuries provides protection from large drawdowns.
This strategy is a good fit for investors that want to invest intelligently in the U.S. equity market as well as for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based growth strategy.
The strategy can also complement our existing strategies and can work well with our more conservative strategies like BRS (bond rotation), the BUG or with non-U.S. equity strategies like World Top 4.
We’re delighted to be invited as exhibitor and speaker to the 2015 Annual Conference of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) from Nov 7-9, 2015 at Las Vegas.Frank and I will be attending the conference and we would love to meet you there. Our workshop on Monday, November 9 will have the following topics:
We often we concentrate on U.S. indexes and Treasuries and miss the bigger picture. Here are some interesting charts to remind us of the current state of the market.Keep in mind that unlike equities, forex and commodity prices do have [...]
For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”. The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.
Summary• The World Country Top 4 strategy is a strongly momentum driven strategy creating high returns.• The strategy profits from a maximum global diversification.• With a 20-year CAGR of 20.7% the strategy has a much lower volatility and lower risk [...]
A review of Logical Invest by Efi Pylarinou @ Daily Fintech. "Logical-Invest offers actionable portfolio solutions: Simple and Intelligent" "They provide you with 100% actionable advise." "You can pick a monthly subscription or an annual subscription [...]
What an audience and what an experience! Thanks AAII Silicon Valley! As announced some weeks ago, on April 11 we hosted our first conference at the Silicon Valley chapter of the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) in San Jose, [...]
Summary: -Aggressive leveraged version of our previously published Universal Investment Strategy -Variable SPY-TLT allocations dynamically adapted to the market conditions. -45% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 since 2002.Due to its simplicity and low correlation to the S&P 500, there is a continued interest in the UIS version that uses 3x leveraged ETFs: ETF SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF). Following the suggested nomenclature by Al from AAII SV - and to honor their interest, we call this version “Hell on fire”, which alludes to the high risk/return profile of the strategy. We will show ways to blend this strategy in a well-balanced and risk-optimized portfolio as to overcome the generally negative perception of private investors towards leveraged ETF.
By request of several followers, we have now included the 3 times leveraged version of the Universal Investment Strategy using synthetic SPXL and TMF data from 2002. We're about to publish a full article on this exciting option for this [...]
“What? Another post about tools and infrastructure? Thought Logical Invest is going to show me the next 21st Century ETF Investment Strategy!” Yes, I know there have been plenty of posts regarding new features on our [...]
Subscribers have suggested a mobile solution to quickly track our strategy performances while on the go. Something that would be easy to load on mobile devices and without a bit of fizzle to properly see in smaller screens. Well, your [...]
Our aim is to offer our subscribers and followers valuable and easy-to-use tools to define and track their portfolios of Logical Invest strategies in one place. Since Frank started Logical Invest in 2013, and based on your constant feedback, we [...]
We‘re happy to have been invited to host a presentation at the Silicon Valley Chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors on April 11, 2015. We obviously extend this invitation to whomever is around, join us for this first [...]
This past Friday (3/6/2015) was a difficult day for most portfolios that are long any major asset excluding the dollar index and volatility. Stocks, bonds and gold declined. SPY was down 1.4%, TLT fell 2.2%, GLD also down 2.7%. We got some reactions [...]
On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) (http://seekingalpha.com/article/1845022-the-sleep-well-bond-rotation-strategy-which-has-returned-15-percent-per-year-since-2008). Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here: [...]
Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month. Here is an example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of [...]
The markets have been choppy. It is rough out there . . . currency wars and central bank interventions continue, while global growth is questioned. We are proud to work hard to help investors win the battle. Our [...]
Here is a comparison of different ZIV replacement ETFs in the MYRS strategy. Going long ZIV is the most simple way to execute the strategy. ZIV is in fact an inverse ETF, so even if ZIV does not have leverage, ZIV needs to [...]
This backtest uses the Vanguard VFINX/VUSTX index funds as a proxy to the SPY/TLT ETFs. With these Vanguard funds I have made a 20 year backtest for the UIS strategy. I made this backtest, because many subscribers asked for it, [...]
Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.
Dear investors, In general 2014 was quite a difficult year for investors. Apart of the US market, all global markets finished the year with negative performances. SPY 13.46% (S&P 500 US market) FEZ -9.75% (Euro Stoxx 50) EEM -3.89% (MSCI Emerging [...]
From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: [...]
In a previous post we introduced our new investment strategy, the BUG. There has been a lot of interest but also some concerns when it comes to using leverage. We are introducing a version of the BUG for non-leveraged accounts.In this version we allocate amongst 6 ETFs: SPY, TLT, GLS, CWB, TIP and PCY. Again as in the original strategy we use these heuristics: Timing (using a simple average rule), Volatility Targeting (we reduce exposure to more volatile ETFs), Momentum (we reduce the size of the worst performer and add to the rest). We don’t employ short term mean reversion and we only trade up to 4 assets.
There is something very attractive about vintage items that just won’t die. They just keep coming back. Same philosophy but better up-to-date technology. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies, too. Vintage strategies are often simple, easy to execute and [...]
Introduction This paper discusses the simple but effective method of using adaptive allocations between stock market ETFs and Treasuries. This method has been developed to replace the 100% switching used in normal rotation strategies like the Maximum Yield Rotation and [...]
Thanks for the great feedback and hints for improvements on our new website during the last days! We are working on getting your recommendations implemented and want to share some of the updates and questions we received: Custom Portfolio Builder: [...]
I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtester software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS [...]
Welcome to the Expanded Logical-Invest We are excited to announce that Logical-Invest is expanding its research and modeling team and capabilities, incorporating four lead partners and supporting staff. This enables us to accelerate the development of advanced adaptive market strategies [...]
Here are two backtests charts of the new MYRS strategy with adaptive allocation. The annual return of the old and the new strategy is more or less the same. During low volatility markets, the return of the new strategy is probably slightly [...]
A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF allocation The GMR strategy performed well during the last 10 years. Especially during years with a strong trend in one of the 5 world markets, this strategy was able to [...]
This monthly premium is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green [...]
TMF is by far not so good as TMV short. Here is the 12 month comparison. While all treasuries had quite big losses of about -7%, a shortTMV position was flat over the year. I think for IRA accounts the [...]
TMV should stay in place for quite some long time. The big tapering drawdowns of 2013 are past history. You don't need to look daily at the TMV short hedge. Just keep it. TMV is a loser and if you [...]
A hedge is always an investment which is negatively correlated to the main investment. When the main investment goes down, the hedge should go up and if the main investment goes up, then the hedge normally goes down. It is [...]
As you perhaps know I have invested all my money in my own strategies, and I and my family (the best wife of all and 4 nice children) are living from the return of these investments. So, I just cannot [...]
In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask? Because since 2011, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. [...]
The "Bond Rotation Strategy" is another tool you can use alongside our Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRE), to maximize returns. These two strategies form the core of our investment strategies. We employ this strategy, because it outperforms the stock market [...]
Several times I have been asked why we invest in ZIV (inverse mid-term volatility) and not in XIV (inverse front month volatility) in our Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and in the "Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy". After all, front month VIX Future [...]
En este artículo quiero explicar cómo funciona nuestra Estrategia de Rotación de Máximo Rendimiento "Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy". Esta estrategia logra muy altos retornos por invertir en fondos de volatilidad inversa. Desde 2011 hasta hoy el rendimiento anual fue de más del 55% por año. Durante el año presente el rendimiento acumulado es del 27%. El ratio de Sharpe (una estimación del retorno por unidad de riesgo) de 2,1 es un "valor sueño" y dudo que alguien puede mostrar una estrategia con una mayor proporción.La estrategia invierte en 4 ETF diferentes: Mercado de acciones de Estados Unidos Bonos del Tesoro Volatilidad Inversa Equivalente a Efectivo
In this paper I want to explain the readers how the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy of www.logical-invest.com is built. This Strategy achieves very high returns investing in inverse volatility. From 2011 to today the annual performance was more than 70% per [...]
You are probably wondering how we could achieve yearly performances of more than 50% with some of our rotation strategies. The reason is that the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and the Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy are investing in inverse [...]
La siguiente estrategia es una de nuestros favoritos, que muchos de nuestros amigos, clientes y nosotros mismos hemos utilizado ya por algunos años. La Estrategia de Rotación de Mercados Globales (“Global Market Rotation Strategy”, GMR) La Estrategia GMR rota mensualmente entre 6 ETF diferentes. El rendimiento histórico calculado de esta estrategia desde 2003 es bastante impresionante. Rendimiento anual (CAGR) = 36.7% (S&P 500 = 8,4%) Rendimiento total a partir de 2003 = 3924% (S&P 500 = 134%) 69% de las operaciones mensuales tienen una rentabilidad positivaLos mercados globales utilizados y ETF correspondientes son: Estados Unidos Europa Mercados emergentes América Latina Región del Pacífico
The following strategy is one of my favorite rotation strategies, which many of my friends, customers and I use now for some years. The Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMR) The GMR Strategy switches between 6 different ETFs on a monthly [...]