September has turned out not to be a great month for equities, with the S&P down 4.7%. However, this is not particularly worrisome, as the index is still only 10% off its all-time high and has a respectable 13% YTD performance. Economic Stress There are other factors worth mentioning, as we observe unusual activity in the markets. It’s best to consult some charts. Just looking at the index below, it is unclear whether the S&P … Read more
August correction The current month has seen its fair share of market turbulence, with the S&P 500 experiencing a modest decline of 1.7%. While this dip breaks a five-month winning streak, it’s important to keep in mind the broader context. The Nasdaq Composite boasted an exceptional first half of the year, and the S&P 500’s year-to-date gains remain an impressive 18.6%. Seasonal Trends August historically presents challenges for the SP500, so a slight correction is … Read more
The Bull continues – All strategies positive for the month In July, all our strategies were positive as the SP500 price nears it’s all time high. South America first to lower rates The Federal Reserve (FED) paused rate hikes last month, creating expectations of a possible plateau in tightening policy. However, it surprised the market by deciding to raise rates in July by 0.25%, signaling its continued commitment to fighting inflation. Meanwhile, in Chile, the central bank held … Read more
The unexpected Bull At the beginning of 2023, there was a prevailing sense of negativity as both the S&P 500 and bonds experienced significant double-digit losses. However, in our 2022 end-of-year newsletter, we argued that not only one should stay invested, they should anticipate a minimum return of 4.7%. This projection was based on the risk-free yield of a 1-year Treasury. Our average strategy return surpassed expectations, reaching 7.3%. This unexpected bullish market appeared out … Read more
Summertime In May, we witnessed yet another episode of the U.S. debt ceiling drama, which has become a recurring theme for seasoned investors. However, this spectacle appears more like a theatrical performance rather than a true reflection of reality. It is difficult to fathom that U.S. politicians would willingly harm their own economy by allowing a default event to occur. Nevertheless, in this age of social media influence, there seems to be a fervent desire … Read more
Don’t bid farewell in May and hit the hay, just hedge your way and stay in the play… As we enter a seasonally sluggish period for equities it may be best to stay in the markets but use our hedged strategies to gain exposure to alternative assets such as gold, volatility, TIPS, crypto and foreign markets. See our main strategies ranked, here: https://logical-invest.com/app/testRank.php Access our full list of sub-strategies ranked here: https://logical-invest.com/app/asset_list.php Outlook As U.S. … Read more
Emotion vs Reality Although March was marred by news of failing banks, the threat of regional bank runs, and predictions of hyperinflation, the numbers reveal a different story. Despite these concerns, March was a month of significant investment growth in financial markets, with the SPY up 3.7%, TLT up 4.8%, and GLD up 7.9%. In contrast to fears of economic collapse, these cold, hard numbers suggest that one needs to be defensive but still needs … Read more
Dollar index up, all else down After an excellent start in January 2023, February was a corrective month for most asset classes such as equities (SPY: -2.5%), bonds (TLT: -4.9%) and gold (GLD:-5.4%). Emerging markets were down (EEM: -7.6%) while the dollar index was up (UUP: 3.3%). The FED raised rates by 0.25% and the ECB by 0.5%. Current rates stand at 4.75% for the U.S. and at 3% for the European Union. Expectations are … Read more
A good start All Logical Invest strategies came out positive for January. Our more aggressive strategies saw 12-19% gains while only one strategy had a slightly negative return. The Universal Investment 3x Leveraged strategy took the lead with 19.5%, followed by the Maximum Yield Strategy at 15.7%. Many of our strategies stayed in defensive mode for January, allocating heavily to GSY, which is the short-term paper ETF. We expect those strategies to start allocating more … Read more
We wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year! Here are a few thoughts on investing for 2023! 4.7% annual return Risk-Free At the moment you can buy a 1-year Treasury and get 4.7% guaranteed return for the next year.Think about that. It’s as if you hired a manager that promises a 4.7% return and guaranteed not to loose any money, all through 2023. Would you believe him? Consider the fact that 2023 looks … Read more