Logical Invest
Investment Outlook
December 2017

Our top 2017 investment strategies, year-to-date:

SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 20.25%.

News:

Our strategy development software QuantTrader has been updated and can once again fetch intraday prices.

Market comment:

November was another positive month for the S&P 500 with the index gaining +3.06 %. More risk-sensitive indicators such as the Russell 2000, emerging markets indexes as well as high yield and foreign bonds showed increased volatility and signs of weakness. This may be due to expectations of coming inflation and interest rates hikes rather than economic factors. U.S. Treasuries gained 0.74% but still remain weak. Gold remains flat adding +0.36% for the month.

Our strategies experienced some volatility mid-month but eventually recovered. Our best performer was the leveraged Universal Strategy (UIS 3x) with 6.70% as both SPY and TLT returned gains. Our worst performer was the World Top 4 (WT4) strategy shedding -2.39% mostly due to the Chilean ETF dropping -12.1%. Our enhanced permanent portfolio strategy (the “BUG“) added a 0.7%, the Global Rotation Strategy added 1.63% and our Nasdaq 100 strategy managed 0.39% for the month despite some larger moves in it’s individual allocations (LRCX -7.79%, ISRG +6.51) . Our Maximum Yield strategy reminded us that it can experience large corrections as volatility turned up mid-month only to recover later and end up with a slight (-0.62%) loss. MYRS remains above the 50% for the year.

Christmas and New year’s have always been kind to investors. This year, with the S&P500 already at +20% year-to-date we are curious if the market will once again reward risk takers. Either way we follow our models and keep a diversified and balanced exposure to the markets.

We end this newsletter with a look at crypto-currencies. When we first mentioned Bitcoin in our July newsletter, 1 BTC was worth $2,346. Two days ago (Nov. 29 2017) it hit the $11,000 mark and has since quickly corrected to the 9,000 mark (-18%). This type of action with huge payoffs and draw-downs is a lesson in psychology: As lucky as they are, Bitcoin owners now feel the pressure as they sit on large unrealised gains and watch as the mainstream CME, CBOE and NASDAQ exchanges prepare to throw an elephant (the new BTC Futures contracts) into this tiny, illiquid and somewhat secretive market. Large players and professional traders are about to come in with full leverage and we expect some very interesting action.

Logical Invest, December 1, 2017

Strategy performance overview:

Logical Invest Performance December 2017

Logical Invest Performance December 2017

Visit our site for daily updated performance tables.
Symbols:

BRS – Bond Rotation Strategy
BUGST – A conservative Permanent Portfolio Strategy
BUGLEV – A leveraged Permanent Portfolio Strategy
GMRS – Global Market Rotation Strategy
GMRSE – Global Market Rotation Strategy Enhanced
GSRLV – Global Sector Rotation low volatility
NASDAQ100 – Nasdaq 100 strategy
WORLD-TOP4 – The Top 4 World Country Strategy
UIS – Universal Investment Strategy
UIS-SPXL-TMF – 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy
AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr)
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 Index
TLT – iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr)

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