This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the historical volatility to 15% or less over the analyzed period. As a reference, the volatility limit of 15% is slightly below the historical volatility, or risk, of the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY). This is an aggressive portfolio suited for investors with a relatively high risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 50%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (97%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 181.3% of Volatility less than 15% is higher, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the total return is 48%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 39.3% from the benchmark.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 23% of Volatility less than 15% is greater, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (11.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 14% is higher, thus better.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 15.2% of Volatility less than 15% is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 13.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 17.5% from the benchmark.

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (15%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 10.6% of Volatility less than 15% is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (12.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.2% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.35 in the last 5 years of Volatility less than 15%, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.58)
- Compared with SPY (0.53) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.86 is larger, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.93 in the last 5 years of Volatility less than 15%, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.8)
- Compared with SPY (0.76) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.25 is larger, thus better.

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the Downside risk index of 5.5 in the last 5 years of Volatility less than 15%, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.33 )
- Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 6.08 is lower, thus better.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -21.3 days in the last 5 years of Volatility less than 15%, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
- During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -19 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 281 days of Volatility less than 15% is smaller, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 281 days is lower, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Volatility less than 15% is 55 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (123 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 75 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (181 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Volatility less than 15% are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.