US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (90.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 52.8% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (77.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 23.1% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.9% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 7.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21.2%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 11.7%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (17%) in the same period.
• Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 8.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (15.2%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 8.4% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (10.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 6.4% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.66) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.55 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (1.23) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.53 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.96) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.76 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 0.74, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.84 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.42 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 6.51 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 4.24 , which is larger, thus worse than the value of 3.48 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is -16.4 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (-18.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -11.7 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• The maximum days under water over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 507 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 270 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 150 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (19 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 75 days is greater, thus worse.