US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (110.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 43.7% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at total return in of 18% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (50.8%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 7.5% in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (16.1%)
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 5.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (14.7%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 9.6% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 11.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 22.7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 6.8% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 8.3%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 16.5% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 0.52, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.73) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.28, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.54 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.73 in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1)
• During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.38, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.74 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (5.58 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 3.09 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 3.61 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (6.91 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is -18.5 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -18.5 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 285 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is greater, thus worse.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 285 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 64 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is greater, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 69 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.