US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (115.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 65.2% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (71.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 12.4% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (16.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 10.6% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (19.7%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 12.1% in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.5%)
• During the last 3 years, the volatility is 10.4%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 17.5% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• The downside volatility over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 8.7%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (12.1%) in the same period.
• Looking at downside deviation in of 7.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (11.5%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.8) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.67 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
• Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.14 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.98).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.17) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.93 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.2 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.49).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Index of 6.36 in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.48 )
• Compared with SPY (5.31 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.71 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is -16.4 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -11.7 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (-18.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 507 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 268 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 199 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average days under water of 140 days in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (120 days)
• During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 85 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 47 days from the benchmark.