The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

December 2016 Update: We are enhancing the Treasury hedge. Before we allocated part of the portfolio to longer-term treasuries, namely the 3x leveraged ETF version, TMF. From now on we will be allocating to the best bond ETF as chosen by our Bond Rotation strategy (BRS). BRS choses from the JNK, CWB,PCY and TLT ETFs.

December 2015 Update: We are adding currency hedged ETFs in the universe that our algorithm can see. That means that we allow our algorithms to choose between a non-hedged ETF like EWG or a hedged ETF like HEWG. This allows our algorithm to input dollar strength as an additional parameter and be able to respond accordingly. This does not change the current logic, which is to bet on the best performing regions or countries. What it does is that it allows, in the case of extended dollar strength, to partially neutralize foreign currency risk for our U.S. based investors.

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (76.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 69.4% of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 30%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 52.5% from the benchmark.

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 11.1%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark ACWI (12.1%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 9.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 15.1% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 10.6% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (18%)
- Looking at volatility in of 12.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (21%).

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the downside deviation of 7.9% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (13.3%)
- Looking at downside volatility in of 9.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to ACWI (15.6%).

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.82 in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (0.53)
- During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.53, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.6 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (0.72) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.1 of Global Market Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
- Compared with ACWI (0.81) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.71 is lower, thus worse.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (6.29 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.86 of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
- Looking at Downside risk index in of 3.57 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (6.4 ).

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is -20.7 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (-33.5 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -20.7 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -33.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark ACWI (373 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 94 days of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
- Compared with ACWI (133 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 94 days is smaller, thus better.

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The average days under water over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 19 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (80 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 21 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (25 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Global Market Rotation Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.