Description

The Global Market Rotation Strategy is one of our core investment strategies. The strategy invests on a monthly basis in one of five broad global markets. It hedges the global equity exposure with variable allocation to the HEDGE sub-strategy.

Version History

December 2016 Update: We are enhancing the Treasury hedge. Before we allocated part of the portfolio to longer-term treasuries, namely the 3x leveraged ETF version, TMF. From now on we will be allocating to the best bond ETF as chosen by our Bond Rotation strategy (BRS). BRS choses from the JNK, CWB,PCY and TLT ETFs.

December 2015 Update: We are adding currency hedged ETFs in the universe that our algorithm can see. That means that we allow our algorithms to choose between a non-hedged ETF like EWG or a hedged ETF like HEWG. This allows our algorithm to input dollar strength as an additional parameter and be able to respond accordingly. This does not change the current logic, which is to bet on the best performing regions or countries. What it does is that it allows, in the case of extended dollar strength, to partially neutralize foreign currency risk for our U.S. based investors.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (70.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 57.4% of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 44.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (77.1%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (11.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 9.5% of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 13.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (21.1%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (16.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 9.5% of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 10.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 14.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside deviation of 6.7% in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (11.2%)
  • Looking at downside risk in of 7.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to ACWI (9.8%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.74 of Global Market Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with ACWI (1.27) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.03 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy is 1.05, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.79) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (1.9) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.45 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 3.17 in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (8.9 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 2.13 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 2.89 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (-26.4 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -10.4 days of Global Market Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with ACWI (-16.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -7.6 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 281 days in the last 5 years of Global Market Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (516 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 86 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 62 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (127 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 55 days of Global Market Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 20 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (13 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Market Rotation Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.