Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 233.9%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (129.1%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (71.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 139.4% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.3% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 33.8%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 19.7% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 20.1% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 23%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 22.5% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 14.3% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.6%)
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 16.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (16.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 1.23, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.83) in the same period.
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 1.36 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.76).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.73 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.15)
  • Compared with SPY (1.05) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.92 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 6.98 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (5.59 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 7.65 , which is larger, thus worse than the value of 6.38 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -25.8 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -25.8 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -33.7 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 282 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 282 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (119 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 78 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (32 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (25 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 70 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.