Moderate Risk Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (84.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 56.9% of Moderate Risk Portfolio is lower, thus worse.
• Compared with SPY (75.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 40.2% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 9.5%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.1%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 12%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 20.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 8.1% in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.1%)
• Compared with SPY (15.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 7.9% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• The downside deviation over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 5.8%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the same period.
• Looking at downside deviation in of 5.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (10.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 0.86, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.62) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (1.2) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.2 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.9) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.21 of Moderate Risk Portfolio is higher, thus better.
• Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.78).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Index of 2.6 in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (8.45 )
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 1.94 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 3.51 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.5 days of Moderate Risk Portfolio is greater, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -6.6 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 256 days in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 96 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (120 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 47 days of Moderate Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
• Looking at average days under water in of 24 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (20 days).