Description

This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.

The equity/bond (or in our case HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection. 

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (128%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 39.3% of Hedge Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 16.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (44.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 6.9% of Hedge Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 5.3%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 13.2% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 7.3% of Hedge Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 7.8%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 22.9% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 5% in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.6%)
  • Compared with SPY (16.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 5.6% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.6 in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.82)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.36, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.47 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.87 in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.14)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 0.49 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.64).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 2.48 of Hedge Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (7.15 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.84 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -9.7 days of Hedge Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -9.7 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 174 days in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 117 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 44 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 32 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (45 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Hedge Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.