Description

The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Methodology & Assets

This strategy switches between very low risk ETFs that hold short term corporate or treasury bonds including GSY, MINT and NEAR.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or performance over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 24.5%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (5.4%) in the same period.
  • Looking at total return in of 14.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SHY (8.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1.1%)
  • Compared with SHY (2.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% is higher, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 1.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (1.9%) in the same period.
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 0.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SHY (2.3%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 0.8% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 0.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 1.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (-0.76) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.59 of Short Term Bond Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 3.42 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (0.18).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 2.51, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (-1.17) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 7.03 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (0.28).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 0.36 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (2.29 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 0.1 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SHY (0.93 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -2 days in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-5.7 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -0.4 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (-2.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (712 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 265 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with SHY (200 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 82 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 54 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (229 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 16 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 53 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Short Term Bond Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.