Description

The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Methodology & Assets

This strategy switches between very low risk ETFs that hold short term corporate or treasury bonds including GSY, MINT and NEAR.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 20.4% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (4.9%)
  • Compared with SHY (-0.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 12.8% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 3.8% in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (1%)
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 4.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (-0.2%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (1.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 2% of Short Term Bond Strategy is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SHY (2.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 1.4% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (1.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 1.6% of Short Term Bond Strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SHY (1.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 0.9% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (-0.82) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.65 of Short Term Bond Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 1.14, which is larger, thus better than the value of -1.21 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (-1.26) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.8 of Short Term Bond Strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.79 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SHY (-1.81).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 0.52 in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (2.27 )
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 0.46 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SHY (2.93 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (-5.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -5.2 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is greater, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -2 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -5.7 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (684 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 265 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 265 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 684 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 53 days in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (211 days)
  • Compared with SHY (317 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 73 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Short Term Bond Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.