Description

The Short Term Bond Strategy is essentially a place to park cash that earns interest. When combined with other higher risk strategies it creates a lower risk portfolio and generally improves the portfolio's Sharpe ratio. If your broker pays interest on cash balances that is comparable to the current yield of this strategy, you can choose to keep this allocation in cash instead.

Methodology & Assets

This strategy switches between very low risk ETFs that hold short term corporate or treasury bonds including GSY, MINT and NEAR.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 25.2%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (9%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (14.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 17.7% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 4.6%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (1.7%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (4.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 1.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 0.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 0.7%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (1.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (1.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 0.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 1.8, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (-0.39) in the same period.
  • Compared with SHY (1.04) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 5.42 is greater, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 2.87 in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-0.6)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 13, which is higher, thus better than the value of 1.79 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 0.36 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (2.29 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 0.03 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 0.47 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -2 days in the last 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SHY (-5.7 days)
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -0.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SHY (-1.6 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SHY (712 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 265 days of Short Term Bond Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 10 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 126 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of Short Term Bond Strategy is 59 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SHY (232 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 2 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 26 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Short Term Bond Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.