Description

The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.

This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Methodology & Assets
  • CUT - Guggenheim Beacon Global Timber Equities
  • KXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples
  • EXI - iShares S&P Global Industrials
  • LIT - Global X Solactive Lithium Index
  • FAN - First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy
  • MOO - Market Vectors Agribusiness
  • NLR - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy
  • GNR - SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources
  • PIO - PowerShares Palisades Global Water
  • GURU - Global X Top Guru Holdings
  • PKW - PowerShares Buyback Achievers
  • IGF - iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index
  • REMX - Market Vectors Rare Earth Strategic Metals
  • IXC - iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index
  • RWX - SPDR DJ International Real Estate
  • IXG - iShares S&P Global Financials
  • RXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretionary
  • IXJ - iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector
  • SEA - Guggenheim Delta Global Shipping Index
  • IXN - iShares S&P Global Technology
  • SLX - Market Vectors Global Steel
  • IXP - iShares S&P Global Telecom Sector
  • SOIL - GlobalX Solactive Fertilizers-Potash
  • KOL - Market Vectors Global Coal
  • TAN - Guggenheim MAC Global Solar Energy
  • FPX - First Trust US IPO ETF
  • JXI - iShares Global Utilities

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (71.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 41.7% of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with ACWI (82.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 43% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (11.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 7.2% of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 12.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (22.4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 7.8% in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (16%)
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 8.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to ACWI (14.3%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (11%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 5.6% of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 9.5% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (0.56) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.61 of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.22 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to ACWI (1.39).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 0.84, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.82) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (2.08) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.71 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (8.9 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 3.6 of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 2.15 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 3.21 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.2 days in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (-26.4 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -6.8 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -16.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 473 days in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (516 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 92 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 94 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 115 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (127 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (17 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 25 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Sector Rotation Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.