Description of Global Sector Rotation Strategy

The Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) provides a good diversification to our other strategies. The strategy invests in the top two performing global sectors. Global sector ETFs often display well-defined, long lasting, up or down trends which makes them a good fit rotation strategies. Another advantage of sector rotation strategies is that even in sideways markets, there are often still individual sectors that are performing well.

This strategy consists of three sub-strategies: GSRS aggressive , GSRS low-volatility and the HEDGE sub-strategies.

Methodology & Assets
  • CUT - Guggenheim Beacon Global Timber Equities
  • KXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples
  • EXI - iShares S&P Global Industrials
  • LIT - Global X Solactive Lithium Index
  • FAN - First Trust ISE Global Wind Energy
  • MOO - Market Vectors Agribusiness
  • NLR - Market Vectors Nuclear Energy
  • GNR - SPDR S&P Global Natural Resources
  • PIO - PowerShares Palisades Global Water
  • GURU - Global X Top Guru Holdings
  • PKW - PowerShares Buyback Achievers
  • IGF - iShares S&P Global Infrastructure Index
  • REMX - Market Vectors Rare Earth Strategic Metals
  • IXC - iShares S&P Global Energy Sector Index
  • RWX - SPDR DJ International Real Estate
  • IXG - iShares S&P Global Financials
  • RXI - iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretionary
  • IXJ - iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector
  • SEA - Guggenheim Delta Global Shipping Index
  • IXN - iShares S&P Global Technology
  • SLX - Market Vectors Global Steel
  • IXP - iShares S&P Global Telecom Sector
  • SOIL - GlobalX Solactive Fertilizers-Potash
  • KOL - Market Vectors Global Coal
  • TAN - Guggenheim MAC Global Solar Energy
  • FPX - First Trust US IPO ETF
  • JXI - iShares Global Utilities

Statistics of Global Sector Rotation Strategy (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 68.9%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (37.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 30.2%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 37.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 11.1% in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (6.5%)
  • Compared with ACWI (11.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 9.2% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 7% in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (13.4%)
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 6.3%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 11.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (14.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 7.3% of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 6.8%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 13.1% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.22 in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (0.3)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 1.07 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to ACWI (0.74).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 1.17, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (0.28) in the same period.
  • Compared with ACWI (0.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.99 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 2.32 in the last 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark ACWI (6.22 )
  • Compared with ACWI (5.11 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 2.66 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is -6.5 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (-19.5 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -6.5 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -19.5 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark ACWI (408 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 252 days of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with ACWI (372 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 252 days is smaller, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of Global Sector Rotation Strategy is 42 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark ACWI (141 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 56 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to ACWI (112 days).

Performance of Global Sector Rotation Strategy (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Global Sector Rotation Strategy
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Allocations

Returns of Global Sector Rotation Strategy (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Global Sector Rotation Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.