Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 27.7%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0.2%) in the same period.
• Looking at total return, or performance in of 23.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (12%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 5%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (0%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.4%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 3.9% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 5.7% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (5.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 6.1% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 3.9% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (3.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 4.3% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.44, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.4) in the same period.
• Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.8 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.25).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.64 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.57)
• Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.14 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.36).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.98 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.36 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.46 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (1.95 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.6 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-6.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.6 days is smaller, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1146 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at maximum days under water in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days under water over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 64 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (531 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 61 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 49 days from the benchmark.