Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 23.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (12.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 17.1% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 4.3%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.3%) in the same period.
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 5.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (4%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 5.8% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (5.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 6.3% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside volatility of 4% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.3%)
• Looking at downside volatility in of 4.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.7%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.46) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.3 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.28) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.47 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.44, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.65) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (0.41) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.67 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 2.4 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (8.99 )
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.52 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (1.86 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -6.6 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -6.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-5.4 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1146 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at maximum days under water in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average days under water of 64 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (530 days)
• Looking at average days under water in of 60 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to AGG (52 days).