Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-2.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 24.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Looking at total return, or performance in of 19.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (14.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 6.3%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 4.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 5.9% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 6.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (5.2%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 4.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (3.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 4.5% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.34 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.48)
• Compared with AGG (0.41) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.59 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.49, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.68) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (0.6) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.83 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 2.49 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (8.55 ) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (1.79 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 2.51 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-17.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -6.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-4.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1067 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 246 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 195 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (468 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 65 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (57 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 60 days is larger, thus worse.