Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 23%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-2.9%) in the same period.
• Looking at total return, or performance in of 18.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (12.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 4.2% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% is higher, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 5.9% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 6.4%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 5.2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 4.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at downside volatility in of 4.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.5) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.29 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.3) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.53 is greater, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.43 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.71)
• During the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation is 0.76, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.43 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.85 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.45 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (1.76 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 2.46 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -6.6 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-17.7 days) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (-4.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -6.6 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 246 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1107 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (498 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 64 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (54 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 59 days is greater, thus worse.