Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (3.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 68.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 10.1%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.5% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (0.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 11.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 3.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.2%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 6.9% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 5.5%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 4.2% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 3.7%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 4.9% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.29) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.23 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.14, which is higher, thus better than the value of -0.33 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.43) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 2.04 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.2 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (-0.48).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Looking at the Downside risk index of 2.24 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (9.36 )
• Compared with AGG (5.84 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 2.43 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-18.4 days)
• Compared with AGG (-12.2 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -6 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 217 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1161 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 205 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 607 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days below previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 58 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (555 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 59 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 260 days from the benchmark.