Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 26.7% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.9%)
• Compared with AGG (13.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 22.8% is greater, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.2%)
• Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 7.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (4.4%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• The volatility over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 5.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (5.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 6.2% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 3.9% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (3.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 4.3% is larger, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.41 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.38)
• Compared with AGG (0.36) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.75 is larger, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.6 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.52) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.08 is greater, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.99 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.35 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 2.46 , which is higher, thus worse than the value of 1.96 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is -6.6 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (-6.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1145 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 246 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 195 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (530 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 63 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (51 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 60 days is greater, thus worse.