Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Looking at the total return, or performance of 20.2% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.8%)
• Looking at total return in of 19% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (17.1%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 3.8%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.2%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (5.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 6% is larger, thus better.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 6% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 6.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (5.1%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Looking at the downside risk of 4.2% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (4.3%)
• During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 4.6%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 3.4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.43) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.21 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.54, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.58 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.3, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.61) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 0.76, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 0.86 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 2.57 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (8.56 ) in the same period.
• Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.64 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (1.84 ).

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-17.3 days)
• Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -6.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-4.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• The maximum days under water over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 246 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1067 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (469 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 66 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Looking at average days under water in of 62 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (61 days).