Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 24.9% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the total return is 19.9%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 13.2% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 4.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (4.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3% is higher, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 5.9% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 6.4%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 5.2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 4.1% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Looking at downside risk in of 4.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.6%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.46) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.35 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.59 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.33).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.51, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.64) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 0.84, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.49 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Looking at the Downside risk index of 2.43 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (8.91 )
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 2.45 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 1.76 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.6 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-17.7 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -6.6 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -4.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

• The maximum days under water over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 246 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1116 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average days below previous high of 64 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (505 days)
• Compared with AGG (54 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 59 days is greater, thus worse.