Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-1.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 21.3% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (16.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 20.2% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.3%)
• During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 6.3%, which is higher, thus better than the value of 5.2% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

• The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 6%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (5.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 6.5% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 4.2% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at downside volatility in of 4.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.4%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.45) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 0.25 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.59 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.53).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.64) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.35 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.78) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.84 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (8.56 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 2.56 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (1.84 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.62 is larger, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.6 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-17.3 days)
• Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -6.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to AGG (-4.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1067 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 246 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (195 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (469 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 66 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at average days below previous high in of 62 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to AGG (61 days).