Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 28.9%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (1%) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (12.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 25.6% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.2% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (0.2%)
• Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (4%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (6.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 5.6% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is smaller, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (5.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 6% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• The downside deviation over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 3.8%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the same period.
• Looking at downside deviation in of 4.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to AGG (3.8%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.38) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.49 of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (0.27) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.91 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 0.72, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (-0.53) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 1.32, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.39 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 2.34 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (8.98 ) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (1.95 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.45 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -6.6 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -6.6 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -6.1 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 246 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (1145 days)
• Compared with AGG (195 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 246 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days below previous high over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 63 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (531 days) in the same period.
• Compared with AGG (49 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 61 days is greater, thus worse.