Bond ETF Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-0.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 19.7% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 16.5%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 11.3% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 3.7% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.2%)
• Compared with AGG (3.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 5.3% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 5.8% in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (6.1%)
• Compared with AGG (5.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 5.8% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (4.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 4% of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 4%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 4% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

• Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.2 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.44)
• Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.48 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to AGG (0.2).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

• Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.29 in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (-0.63)
• Compared with AGG (0.29) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 0.69 is larger, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is 2.51 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark AGG (8.99 ) in the same period.
• Looking at Downside risk index in of 2.5 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to AGG (2.28 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (-17.8 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Compared with AGG (-7.4 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.6 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• Compared with the benchmark AGG (1131 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 246 days of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 246 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 195 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 75 days in the last 5 years of Bond ETF Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark AGG (517 days)
• Compared with AGG (61 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 63 days is larger, thus worse.