This sub-strategy looks at two components and chooses the most appropriate one: A Treasury and a GLD-USD sub-strategy. The addition of gold provides an option for prolonged inflationary environments that could place bonds in a multi-year bear market.

The equity/bond (or in our case HEDGE) pair is interesting because most of the time these two asset classes profit from an inverse correlation. If there is a real stock market correction, money typically flows towards treasuries and gold rewarding holders and providing crash protection.

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The total return, or performance over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 41%, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (97.7%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (26%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 12.2% is smaller, thus worse.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 7.1%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (14.6%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 3.9% is smaller, thus worse.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 7.8% in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.9%)
- During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 4.1%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 17.5% from the benchmark.

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The downside deviation over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 5.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (15%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (12.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 2.9% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.58) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.6 of Hedge Strategy is higher, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (0.32) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.35 is higher, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 0.86, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.81) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (0.45) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 0.5 is larger, thus better.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Hedge Strategy is 2.98 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 2.96 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -10.8 days of Hedge Strategy is greater, thus better.
- Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -4.9 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (-24.5 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 513 days of Hedge Strategy is greater, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 513 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 145 days in the last 5 years of Hedge Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (123 days)
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 190 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (179 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Hedge Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
- Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.