This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 15%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.

As such it is a aggressive Portfolio suited for investors with a higher risk tolerance and aggressive growth expectations.

Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
- Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) (0% to 100%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (80.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 68.7% of Max Drawdown less than 15% is lower, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 26.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 30.7% from the benchmark.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 11.1% in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15%, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.6%)
- During the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) is 8.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 9.4% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (21.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 7.7% of Max Drawdown less than 15% is smaller, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 6.7%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 17.6% from the benchmark.

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The downside volatility over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15% is 5.5%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (15.3%) in the same period.
- Looking at downside volatility in of 4.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.3%).

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.11 in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15%, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.47)
- Compared with SPY (0.39) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.83 is greater, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.66) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.55 of Max Drawdown less than 15% is higher, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (0.56) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.18 is higher, thus better.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Downside risk index over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15% is 2.46 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (9.43 ) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 2.54 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -13.5 days in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15%, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
- During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -8.1 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 15% is 196 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (479 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 196 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 479 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 35 days of Max Drawdown less than 15% is lower, thus better.
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 42 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (173 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Max Drawdown less than 15% are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.