This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.

As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.

Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
- Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) (0% to 100%)
- NASDAQ 100 Strategy (NAS100) (0% to 100%)
- Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy (GLD-USD) (0% to 100%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
- Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
- Dow 30 Strategy (DOW30) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The total return over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 98.7%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (81.7%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (54.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 52.4% is smaller, thus worse.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (12.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 14.7% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is larger, thus better.
- Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 15% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (15.6%).

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The volatility over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 7.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.3%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the volatility is 6.7%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 12.8% from the benchmark.

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 8.4% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the downside deviation is 7.7%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 14.8% from the benchmark.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.57 in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.76)
- Compared with SPY (1.03) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.88 is greater, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 1.46, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.69) in the same period.
- Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.64 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.89).

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The Downside risk index over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 2.56 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (3.97 ) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 1.85 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 4.09 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -8.4 days in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
- Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -6.3 days is larger, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 230 days of Max Drawdown less than 10% is greater, thus worse.
- Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 230 days is greater, thus worse.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The average days below previous high over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 49 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 50 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 37 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Max Drawdown less than 10% are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.