This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.

As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.

Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
- Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) (0% to 100%)
- NASDAQ 100 Strategy (NAS100) (0% to 100%)
- Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy (GLD-USD) (0% to 100%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
- Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
- Dow 30 Strategy (DOW30) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 166.4% in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (74.4%)
- During the last 3 years, the total return is 57.8%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 48.6% from the benchmark.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.7% in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (11.8%)
- Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 16.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (14.1%).

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The volatility over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 10.8%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.5%) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 9.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.8% from the benchmark.

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 12% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 11.1% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.77 in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.69)
- Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 1.45 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.91).

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.63) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.59 of Max Drawdown less than 10% is greater, thus better.
- Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.25 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.79).

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (3.99 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 2.31 of Max Drawdown less than 10% is smaller, thus better.
- Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.32 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (4.09 ).

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -7.8 days of Max Drawdown less than 10% is larger, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -7.7 days is greater, thus better.

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 104 days of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus better.
- Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 104 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (139 days).

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The average days below previous high over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 20 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (42 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 24 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (36 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Max Drawdown less than 10% are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.