This portfolio has been optimized for achieving the highest possible return while limiting the maximum Drawdown, that is the highest drop from peak to valley over the analyzed period, to 10%. As a reference, the maximum experienced drawdown of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) over the same period has been 27%, while the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) experienced a drop of 55%.

As such it is a moderate Portfolio suited for investors with a limited risk tolerance and moderate growth expectations.

Please note that the Maximum DrawDown refers to a single event, for analyzing the risk of losses you should also consider other related metrics like the maximum and average duration and the Ulcer Ratio. A more reliable measure for the downside risk of an asset over a period of time is the Downside Deviation or Volatility.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
- Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) (0% to 100%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 100%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (67.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 42.3% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus worse.
- During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 26.9%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 61.5% from the benchmark.

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (10.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 7.3% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus worse.
- Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 8.3% is smaller, thus worse.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 4.2% in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21.4%)
- Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 3.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (20%).

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (15.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 3.1% of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (13.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 2.7% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.39) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.16 of Max Drawdown less than 10% is larger, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 1.48, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.74 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.57 of Max Drawdown less than 10% is larger, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 2.15, which is larger, thus better than the value of 1.06 from the benchmark.

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.21 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 1.2 of Max Drawdown less than 10% is lower, thus better.
- Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 1.17 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (9.87 ).

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -9.5 days of Max Drawdown less than 10% is higher, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -3.9 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10% is 154 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (311 days) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (311 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 154 days is lower, thus better.

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the average days under water of 23 days in the last 5 years of Max Drawdown less than 10%, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (66 days)
- Compared with SPY (82 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 28 days is lower, thus better.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Max Drawdown less than 10% are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.