Special Topic: IRA Investments using QuantTrader, our Backtest Software
Our top year-to-date strategies:
- The Maximum Yield strategy with 32.61% return.
- The Leveraged Universal strategy with 21.42% return.
- The World Top 4 with 17.66% return.
SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned 5.87%, year-to-date.
Recent surveys show that fund managers have increased cash positions1 while outflows from equity funds are at historically high levels2. From a contrarian point of view this could be considered market positive. There are two bullish seasonal biases kicking in: The presidential year is nearing an end and we are walking into the traditional strongest months of the year. The beginning of the month may be volatile as markets react to elction results. It remains to be seen how and if these results will affect the rest of the year.
All our strategies corrected during October. Our hedged Gold strategy was almost flat at +0.17% while our aggressive 3x UIS suffered a -11.02% correction. The World Top 4 lost -1.80% while most other strategies lost anywhere from -2 to -4%.
This was partly due to a sudden correction in Treasuries, causing TLT to lose almost 5% for the month. SPY was down -1.73% and GLD -2.74%. This type of rise in cross-asset correlation was seen in 2015. In the graph below you can see how TLT an GLD correlations to SPY turned positive in October.
Correlations of TLT and GLD become positive end of October.
We have found this type fo behaviour to correlate to a strengthening dollar. UUP the ETF that tracks the dollar index is up 3% for the month, a fairly large move, causing the index to approach towards it’s 2015 highs. We are taking this into consideration even though the environment is quite different this year. While commodities and foreign markets were crashed by the 2015 dollar move, selected markets are showing tremendous strength, namely coal (KOL:+69% YTD), metals & mining (XME:+51% YTD), Brazil (EWZ:+68% YTD).
We wish you a healthy and profitable November.
Logical Invest, November 1, 2016
Strategy performance overview:
Visit our site for daily updated performance tables.
Special topic IRA Investments
Read how to apply our development backtest software QuantTrader as a DIY investor or passive investment advisor to create your own IRA Investments in just a couple of minutes. Contact us with your special requests for building your own ETF Rotation Strategy for your IRA Investments.
BRS – Bond Rotation Strategy
BUGST – A conservative Permanent Portfolio Strategy
BUGLEV – A leveraged Permanent Portfolio Strategy
GMRS – Global Market Rotation Strategy
GMRSE – Global Market Rotation Strategy Enhanced
GSRLV – Global Sector Rotation low volatility
NASDAQ100 – Nasdaq 100 strategy
WORLD-TOP4 – The Top 4 World Country Strategy
UIS – Universal Investment Strategy
UIS-SPXL-TMF – 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy
AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr)
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 Index
TLT – iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr)
1. BofA Merrill Lynch October Fund Manager Survey 2. ICI Combined Estimated Long-Term Fund Flows and ETF Net Issuance October 26, 2016