Moderate Risk Portfolio

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

• Looking at the total return, or performance of 46.3% in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (75.2%)
• During the last 3 years, the total return is 36.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 78.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

• Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (11.9%)
• Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 10.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21.5%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 8.1% of Moderate Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 7.9%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 15.5% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

• The downside volatility over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 5.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (12%) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (10.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 5.6% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio is 0.67, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.54) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 1.07, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 1.23 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.95 in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.79)
• Compared with SPY (1.82) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.52 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.46 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.75 of Moderate Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
• During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 2.25 , which is smaller, thus better than the value of 3.22 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -9.5 days in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -6.6 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• Looking at the maximum days under water of 256 days in the last 5 years of Moderate Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (488 days)
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 177 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 87 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (117 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 57 days of Moderate Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
• Looking at average days under water in of 39 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (17 days).