**Recommended for:** Capital growth, speculation and young investors.

The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds and may include leveraged ETFs such as UGLD, SPXL and TMF.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 60%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 60%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 60%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 60%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 60%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 60%)

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The total return over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 82.7%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (81.9%) in the same period.
- Looking at total return in of 37.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (46.1%).

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (12.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 12.8% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is greater, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (13.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 11.2% is lower, thus worse.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (19.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 10.3% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the volatility is 12.2%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 23% from the benchmark.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 7.3% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Looking at downside deviation in of 8.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.8%).

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1 in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.52)
- During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 0.71, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.48 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 1.41, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.7) in the same period.
- Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.99 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.65).

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 2.84 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (6.08 ) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (6.77 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 3.54 is lower, thus better.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is -17.5 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
- Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -17.5 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 134 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 134 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (119 days).

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (35 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 27 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 32 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 27 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Aggressive Risk Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.