**Recommended for:** Capital growth, speculation and young investors.

The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds and may include leveraged ETFs such as UGLD, SPXL and TMF.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 60%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 60%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 60%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 60%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 60%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 60%)

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The total return over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 156.1%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (67.8%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (44.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 60.2% is larger, thus better.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 20.7%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (10.9%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (13.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% is higher, thus better.

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (21.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 15.4% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (18.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 15.9% is lower, thus better.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (15.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 10.9% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (13.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 11.4% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 1.19, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.39) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (0.56) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.91 is larger, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.55) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.67 of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is higher, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (0.79) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.27 is greater, thus better.

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.46 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 5.54 of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio is 6.4 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 10 from the benchmark.

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -20.8 days in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
- Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -19.6 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-24.5 days).

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The maximum days under water over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 278 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (352 days) in the same period.
- Looking at maximum time in days below previous high water mark in of 278 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (352 days).

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (78 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 53 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 69 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (102 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Aggressive Risk Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.