Description of Max Sharpe Portfolio

This portfolio has been optimized to provide the highest Sharpe Ratio, which is a metric that compares the amount of return versus the amount of risk, based on historical data. Return is based on CAGR and risk is based on volatility. The portfolio is well suited for risk adverse investors with moderate growth expectations.

Please note that this portfolio might use leveraged ETF and single stocks. Should these not be allowed in your retirement account please see our 401k and IRS compatible Conservative, Moderate, and Aggressive Risk Portfolios. Contact us for special requirements.

Methodology & Assets
This portfolio is constructed by our proprietary optimization alogrithm based on Modern Portfolio Theory pioneered by Nobel Laureate Harry Markowitz. Using historical returns, the algorithm finds the asset allocation that produced the highest Sharpe ratio.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:
  • Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 100%)
  • BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 100%)
  • World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 100%)
  • Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 100%)
  • Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 100%)
  • Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) (0% to 100%)
  • NASDAQ 100 Strategy (NAS100) (0% to 100%)
  • Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy (GLD-USD) (0% to 100%)
  • US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 100%)
  • Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (UISx3) (0% to 100%)
  • US Market Strategy (USMarket) (0% to 100%)
  • Dow 30 Strategy (DOW30) (0% to 100%)
  • Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 100%)

Statistics of Max Sharpe Portfolio (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 114.8% in the last 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (65.6%)
  • Compared with SPY (48.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 50.4% is greater, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 16.5% in the last 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (10.6%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 14.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (14.2%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio is 8.3%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (12.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the volatility of 7.9% is smaller, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 9.3% in the last 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • Compared with SPY (14.6%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.1% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.69 in the last 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.6)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 1.53 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.91).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.54) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.51 of Max Sharpe Portfolio is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 1.32, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.8 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (4.03 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 1.87 of Max Sharpe Portfolio is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.05 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (4.1 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.4 days in the last 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -6.2 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio is 147 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 147 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average days under water over 5 years of Max Sharpe Portfolio is 27 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (35 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 35 days is greater, thus worse.

Performance of Max Sharpe Portfolio (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of Max Sharpe Portfolio
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Allocations

Returns of Max Sharpe Portfolio (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of Max Sharpe Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.