**Recommended for:** Capital growth, speculation and young investors.

The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds and may include leveraged ETFs such as UGLD, SPXL and TMF.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 60%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 60%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 60%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 60%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 60%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 60%)

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (121.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 116.1% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus worse.
- Looking at total return in of 55.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (67.5%).

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 16.7% in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.2%)
- During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 15.9%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 18.7% from the benchmark.

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 9.7% in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (18.7%)
- Looking at volatility in of 11.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (22.5%).

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 6.9% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the downside risk is 8.1%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 16.3% from the benchmark.

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 1.46, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.79) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (0.72) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.18 is greater, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.07 in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.08)
- Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 1.64 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (1).

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Ulcer Index over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 2.2 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (6.83 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 2.71 is lower, thus better.

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The maximum reduction from previous high over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is -17.5 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -17.5 days is greater, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the maximum days under water of 95 days in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
- Compared with SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 95 days is smaller, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 21 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (35 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 23 days is smaller, thus better.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Aggressive Risk Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.