**Recommended for:** Capital growth, speculation and young investors.

The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds and may include leveraged ETFs such as UGLD, SPXL and TMF.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 60%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 60%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 60%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 60%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 60%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 60%)

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 155.1% in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (67.1%)
- Compared with SPY (61.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 78.8% is higher, thus better.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 20.6%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (10.8%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 21.4% is larger, thus better.

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (21.4%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 15.4% of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the volatility is 16.6%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 20% from the benchmark.

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The downside deviation over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 10.9%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (15.4%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (13.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 11.6% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.39) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.18 of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is larger, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (0.74) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.14 is larger, thus better.

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 1.66, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.54) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 1.62, which is higher, thus better than the value of 1.06 from the benchmark.

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the Downside risk index of 5.41 in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.21 )
- During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 6.21 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 9.87 from the benchmark.

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is -20.8 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -19.6 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -24.5 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the maximum days under water of 237 days in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (311 days)
- During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 237 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 311 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The average days under water over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 43 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (66 days) in the same period.
- Looking at average days below previous high in of 54 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (82 days).

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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Allocations and holdings shown below are delayed by one month.

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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Aggressive Risk Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.