**Recommended for:** Capital growth, speculation and young investors.

The Aggressive Risk Portfolio is appropriate for an investor with a high risk tolerance and a time horizon longer than 10 years. Aggressive investors should be willing to accept periods of extreme ups and downs in exchange for the possibility of receiving higher relative returns over the long term. A longer time horizon is needed to allow time for investments to recover in the event of a sharp downturn. This portfolio is heavily weighted with stocks which are historically more volatile than bonds and may include leveraged ETFs such as UGLD, SPXL and TMF.

While this portfolio provides an optimized asset allocation based on historical returns, your investment objectives, risk profile and personal experience are important factors when deciding on the best investment vehicle for yourself. You can also use the Portfolio Builder or Portfolio Optimizer to construct your own personalized portfolio.

Assets and weight constraints used in the optimizer process:

- Bond ETF Rotation Strategy (BRS) (0% to 60%)
- BUG Permanent Portfolio Strategy (BUG) (0% to 60%)
- Global Market Rotation Strategy (GMRS) (0% to 60%)
- Global Sector Rotation Strategy (GSRS) (0% to 60%)
- Short Term Bond Strategy (STBS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) (0% to 60%)
- Universal Investment Strategy 2x Leverage (UISx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Market Strategy 2x Leverage (USMx2) (0% to 60%)
- US Sector Rotation Strategy (USSECT) (0% to 60%)
- World Top 4 Strategy (WTOP4) (0% to 60%)

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the total return of 123.3% in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (115.6%)
- Compared with SPY (43%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 50.5% is larger, thus better.

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 17.4% in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (16.6%)
- Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 14.6% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (12.6%).

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 9.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (18.8%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (22.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 11% is lower, thus better.

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The downside risk over 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is 6.5%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (16.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 7.9% is lower, thus better.

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.63 in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.75)
- During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 1.1, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.44 from the benchmark.

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.31 in the last 5 years of Aggressive Risk Portfolio, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.04)
- During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 1.52, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.61 from the benchmark.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (5.59 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 2.13 of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Looking at Ulcer Index in of 2.68 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (7.14 ).

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -17.5 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is greater, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -17.5 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -33.7 days from the benchmark.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 95 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is smaller, thus better.
- Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 95 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (139 days).

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 20 days of Aggressive Risk Portfolio is lower, thus better.
- Compared with SPY (45 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 23 days is lower, thus better.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of Aggressive Risk Portfolio are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.