The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for August 2018

Logical Invest
Investment Outlook
August 2018

Our top 2018 investment strategies, year-to-date :

SPY, the S&P500 ETF, returned +6.32%.

Market comment:

August starts with very much the same market preoccupations as the previous summer months: Fear of a trade wars and questions about central bank policy. The possibility of additional tariffs is holding back international growth and is keeping foreign markets weak, although there were some notable exceptions. The expectation the Fed will further increase rates has been replaced by fear of foreign central banks tightening policy. The Japanese central bank decided against a hike at this time but the possibility of such a move in the near future does raise the question about the Fed’s hand being forced. Further short-term rate hikes could eventually lead to a flattening or even inversion of the interest-rate curve which in turn brings closer the possibility of a future recession.

Emerging markets and Latin America have been hit hard these past months and in July we saw a bounce from oversold conditions: Brazil (EWZ) returned +12.6% while the broad Latin America ETF (ILF) was up +11.2.%. Emerging markets (EEM) was up +3.53%. On the safe-heaven assets side, Gold fell  by -2.24% while TLT, the 30 year Treasury ETF showed weakness at -1.43% for the month. ZIV, which we use at our MYRS strategy, was up +5.86%.

This month most of our strategy were slightly positive or remained flat. The leveraged Universal Investment strategy (3x UIS) returned +2.87, the Maximum Yield strategy +1.57% while the U.S. sector strategy +1.05%. The biggest loser was the Nasdaq 100 strategy at -4% being particularly affected by losses in NFLX and FOXA.

Cryptocurrencies bounced up from the critical 6000 levels and touched 8400, giving much needed hope to HODLers before coming back down to 7000 levels.

We wish you a healthy and prosperous 2018.

Logical Invest, August 1, 2018

Strategy performance overview:

Logical Invest Strategy Performance August 2018
Logical Invest Strategy Performance August 2018
Visit our site for daily updated performance tables.

BRS – Bond Rotation Strategy
BUGST – A conservative Permanent Portfolio Strategy
BUGLEV – A leveraged Permanent Portfolio Strategy
GMRS – Global Market Rotation Strategy
GMRSE – Global Market Rotation Strategy Enhanced
GSRLV – Global Sector Rotation low volatility
NASDAQ100 – Nasdaq 100 strategy
WORLD-TOP4 – The Top 4 World Country Strategy
UIS – Universal Investment Strategy
UIS-SPXL-TMF – 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy
AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr)
SPY – SPDR S&P 500 Index
TLT – iShares Barclays Long-Term Trsry (15-18yr)

Invest in one of our Top Strategies, register for our free one month trial

NameCAGR 1y ▼
Maximum Yield Strategy30.1%
Leveraged Gold-Currency Strategy29.3%
US Sector Rotation Strategy19.2%
Max Sharpe Portfolio14.5%
NASDAQ 100 Strategy13.8%

2 thoughts on “The Logical-Invest monthly newsletter for August 2018”

  1. I see that the 3x UIS has a 5.99% YTD, UIS a 1.34%… but the simple and easy SPY has a 6.32%, outperforming both of the strategies. I wonder if you know the returns YTD of shorting the -3x leveraged SPXS-TMV instead of SPY-TLT; would have it been better?

    • long term, the best is to short the -3x leveraged ETFs because of their rebalancing losses. Since quite some time any sort of hedge was quite bad for the performance of any strategy, but this can change quite fast if there is a serious correction.

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