I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtest software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS and GMRS. Since 2017, QuantTrader, this backtest software is now also available for retail and institutional investors, see here.
Our backtest software QuantTrader now available
Below you see a 2 year graph showing the Global Market Rotation strategy backtest. The top chart just shows the 6 ETFs used in this strategy. The middle chart shows the allocation in percent of the ETFs for each month and the bottom chart shows the performance chart with EDV and SPY as benchmarks.
It is interesting to see in the backtest, that normal years with strong trends like 2013 have long periods with the same ETFs. 2013 was dominated by MDY and IEV. IEV (Europe) is used as a replacement for FEZ, because it has a 10 year history. In 2014 we had many changes between the markets, but still this type of adaptive algorithm did manage this difficult situation much better than the old algorithm which could only switch 100% into one ETF.
The backtest performance for these last 2 years 19.7% per year, with a Sharpe of 1.94. The old algorithm had 15% annual performance because of a good year 2013 but only a Sharpe ratio of 0.9. In general you can say that during years with long consistent trends, both algorithms will do well, but in years like 2014, where the really best allocation is somewhere in between stocks and Treasuries, a 100% rotation algorithm has problems to find the good ETF.
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