Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (128%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return of 297.6% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at total return, or increase in value in of 158.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (74.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.9% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 37.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (20.5%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 20.1% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 23.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (22.3%).

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (13.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside risk of 14.2% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (16.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 16.3% is greater, thus worse.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.46 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.82)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 1.5 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.81).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (1.13) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.06 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 2.12 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (1.11).

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 6.77 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (5.59 )
  • Compared with SPY (6.3 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 7.67 is higher, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -25.8 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -25.8 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (139 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 295 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 295 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 119 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (32 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 80 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 75 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 23 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.