Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (86.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 90.7% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 66.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (74.9%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 13.9%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.4%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 18.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 20.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (17.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 18.2% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (15.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 17.7% is higher, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 12.6% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus worse.
  • Looking at downside volatility in of 12.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 0.63, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.63) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 0.91 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.19).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 0.9, which is smaller, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (0.92) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (1.76) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.32 is lower, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (8.46 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 9.02 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 6.1 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 3.52 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum drop from peak to valley of -27.8 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley is -19.9 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 392 days of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 192 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (87 days).

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 97 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 50 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (20 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.