Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the total return of 104.9% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (92.8%)
  • Looking at total return in of 76.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (79%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.1%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.5% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 20.9% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to SPY (21.5%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 17.5% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (17.1%)
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 16.7%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 15.2% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 12.2%, which is greater, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (11.8%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside deviation in of 11.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (10.2%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.68) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.74 of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.1 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.25).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.06 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.98)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 1.61 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (1.87).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 8.94 , which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (8.42 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Ulcer Index in of 6.02 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to SPY (3.51 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum drop from peak to valley over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is -27.8 days, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (-24.5 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -19.9 days, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of -18.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 392 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (87 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 192 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 93 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (119 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (21 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days under water of 42 days is larger, thus worse.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.