Description

This is an alternative, 2 times leveraged version of the US Market Strategy using:

  • DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30
  • QLD ProShares Ultra
  • SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500

See more about the US Market Strategy.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 238%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (115.8%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 116.6%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 57% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 27.6% in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (16.7%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 29.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (16.3%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (18.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 20% of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is higher, thus worse.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 22.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (22.5%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 14.2%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.7%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (16.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 16.2% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.26 in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.75)
  • During the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio is 1.18, which is larger, thus better than the value of 0.61 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 1.76, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (1.04) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (0.84) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.67 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 6.88 , which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (5.58 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 7.43 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 6.83 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum DrawDown of -25.8 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days)
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -25.8 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days below previous high of 264 days in the last 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (139 days)
  • Looking at maximum days under water in of 173 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The average time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage is 62 days, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (33 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at average days under water in of 51 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to SPY (35 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US Market Strategy 2x Leverage are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.