Investment Strategies

Strategy Changes due to delisting of ZIV and UGLD as of July 2020

Credit Suisse announced recently the delisting of ZIV and UGLD, among other ETN. These ETN will continue to trade on the Nasdaq Stock Market up to and including July 2, 2020. The delisting of the ETNs will become effective on July 12, 2020. We currently employ ZIV in our Maximum Yield Strategy (MYRS) and UGLD in our Leveraged Universal Investment Strategy (3XUIS). We will modify both strategies effective July 1, 2020 as follows: ZIV – … Read more

Recap: How to use QuantTrader to cut signals

As many new people have joined in the past weeks, here a quick recap on how to use our desktop app QuantTrader to cut signals on your own, and whenever you like. This is useful if you: do not want to wait for us to publish signals and send out emails prefer to trade on a different day of the month want to trade the same day before close using intraday prices To get started … Read more

The “US Market Strategy” or how to invest using a crash-hedged strategy.

There is no better moment to realize the value of a hedged and diversified investment strategy than now during this difficult coronavirus crisis. Logical-Invest has been developing hedged investment strategies for years with the goal of minimizing risk. Since we have been in a bull market for 11 years now, it has been hard to explain why an investor should not invest 100% of their portfolio in equity. Many investors started to believe that markets … Read more

The new always hedged BUG Strategy backtests

permanent portfolio etf rotation

New always hedged BUG Strategy backtests The old BUG strategy behavior during the Corona crash: You see that the crash happened in between two rebalancing’s. As we have been in a 100% bull market scenario in February, the March strategy allocation was 40% Emerging market bonds and 20% Convertible bonds. Both are equity like bonds. The inflation protected TIP bond was not a strong enough hedge. As the crash happened very fast, there was no … Read more

The new always hedged Bond Rotation Investment Strategy backtests

sleep well bond rotation investment strategy

The old Bond Rotation Investment strategy behavior during the Corona crash: You see that the crash happened in between two rebalancing’s. As we have been in a 100% bull market scenario in February, the March strategy allocation was 60% Emerging market bonds and 40% Convertible bonds. Both are equity like bonds. As the crash happened very fast, there was no time to switch into a more defensive allocation. The max drawdown was -32% and the … Read more

Use Market Volatility to Save Your Portfolio

Many investors are liquidating their portfolios with huge losses. They sell all asset classes from equity to Treasuries and gold. I will explain here a better strategy to cut losses. Below is a chart of our Logical Invest Permanent Portfolio Strategy which invests in the 3 main assets: equity (SP&500), Treasuries and gold. The strategy uses a variable allocation of Treasuries and gold to hedge against equity losses. As you can see in the below … Read more

The Coronavirus Market Crash – Lessons learned

coronavirus market crash 2020

Logical Invest in Bearish Mode Since January At the start of the year, before the CORVID-19 outbreak was known, we updated our strategies to better withstand a possible bear market or large correction. You can read the details here. A Two-Stage Correction In the first stage, hedges like gold and Treasuries worked well. Although the SP 500 took a free fall, the 30-year Treasury ETF went parabolic up as the 10-year yield touched 0.6%. Gold … Read more

2020 Logical-Invest strategy update

Starting January 1 2020, we are implementing several modifications to our strategies to make them less volatile and more stable. The biggest modification concerns the Hedge strategy. As this sub-strategy is a major part of all of our ‘hedged’ strategies, any change in this sub-strategy automatically affects the strategies themselves. We are also implementing a new limit for allocations between hedge and equity. The equity/hedge allocations will now range from 40%-60%, which makes sure our … Read more

Why we employ walk-forward testing to avoid curve-fitting

walk forward analysis backtesting

How we backtest our trading strategies, how we avoid overfitting by using walk-forward testing and why we adapt our strategies from time to time. One of the main questions we get is this: Why do we change  the set of parameters from time to time? Is this not just curve-fitting to improve the system performance? Some think, that once you developed a strategy, you should never change it. They argue this is the only way to … Read more

Enhancing Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio strategy using ETFs and monthly rebalancing

Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio allocation

Enhancing Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio The Permanent Portfolio is a simple, diversified portfolio You can construct it using 3 ETFs: SPY, TLT and GLD We enhance it by allowing variable allocations and monthly rebalancing We offer a free subscription so you can implement it in your own account including 401k or IRA  What is the Permanent Portfolio by Harry Browne Harry Browne’s intention was to find a solution for the money “you need to take care … Read more