Dollar index up, all else down After an excellent start in January 2023, February was a corrective month for most asset classes such as equities (SPY: -2.5%), bonds (TLT: -4.9%) and gold (GLD:-5.4%). Emerging markets were down (EEM: -7.6%) while the dollar index was up (UUP: 3.3%). The FED raised rates by 0.25% and the ECB by 0.5%. Current rates stand at 4.75% for the U.S. and at 3% for the European Union. Expectations are … Read more
A good start All Logical Invest strategies came out positive for January. Our more aggressive strategies saw 12-19% gains while only one strategy had a slightly negative return. The Universal Investment 3x Leveraged strategy took the lead with 19.5%, followed by the Maximum Yield Strategy at 15.7%. Many of our strategies stayed in defensive mode for January, allocating heavily to GSY, which is the short-term paper ETF. We expect those strategies to start allocating more … Read more
We wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous new year! Here are a few thoughts on investing for 2023! 4.7% annual return Risk-Free At the moment you can buy a 1-year Treasury and get 4.7% guaranteed return for the next year.Think about that. It’s as if you hired a manager that promises a 4.7% return and guaranteed not to loose any money, all through 2023. Would you believe him? Consider the fact that 2023 looks … Read more
Performances Best performers for the month were the Maximum Yield Strategy (+17.5%) followed by the US Market strategy 2x. End of year performance November ended on a good note as the SP500 added 3% on Wednesday, closing the month at +5.4%. The 30 year Treasury ETF (TLT) rose an impressive +6.7 % . Gold was up 8.1%. How is it that all three asset classes were up during that same month? The answer is in … Read more
A proper inflation hedge: The Gold-Currency strategy I had a dream the other day: I was 9 years old, sitting on the edge of a small harbour, my legs swinging above the water. My grandfather was sitting next to me. We both held fishing rods, staring into the horizon, waiting for the occasional fish to bite. He was telling me stories about the times after world war II where money became worthless, just pieces of … Read more
We are navigating through an unknown economic environment. Central banks are experimenting with controlling inflation versus causing recessions. Economists are trying to compare todays macro trends to those of the late 60’s, early 70’s. Truth is they don’t know the outcome as today’s labor markets are very different from the past. As the powers-to-be play out this experiment, the safety of our funds should be our priority. Be defensive. Have a plan. Dollar up everything … Read more
The ECB’s latest interest raise ends an 8-year period of European negative rates and signals the final chapter of the zero interest rate era. On the other side of the Atlantic, the FED sees a 3.8% rate by the end of 2023. Seasoned investors may see this as a return to more normal times, before the global financial crisis in 2008, when one could expect a 4% interest on their savings. But many analysts point … Read more
Performances Most strategies were in the green for July. Rates: Inflation vs Recession For July the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps), taking the fed funds rate to 2.25% – 2.50%. A few days before the ECB hiked rates by 0.5% lifting them from the previous -0.5%. This was the first time the ECB raised rates in 11 years. These are actions that the central banks are forced to take … Read more
Important updates to all strategies and portfolios We have major updates to our strategies. You can read a detailed description on what has changed, why and how that affects the website charts going forward. We extended our #Cash (or STBS)and #Hedge sub-strategies so more strategies can use them. We have added VTIP or ‘inflation protected cash’ to #Hedge . We added the #Cash sub-strategy to the Universal Investment strategies and to the Enhanced Permanent portfolio strategy. We updated Nasdaq and Dow components as well as … Read more
Now is when you need rules – Subscribe This has been a tough year as most portfolios suffered losses. Neither equity nor bonds have provided protection, while gold has remained flat. It is a good time to stick to rules and protect capital while being able to participate in any rebound. Top 3 Strategy Allocations -Follow up Following up on last month’s publicly announced allocation to the Top 3 strategy, we can see a tolerable … Read more