Market Environment

The Logical-Invest newsletter for January 2022

We wish you a healthy, fulfilling new year near your family, friends and communities. Strategy Performance Most of our strategies were positive for 2021. Highlights were the Crypto & Leveraged strategy and the Nasdaq100. Most other strategies did well but unperformed the SP500 since they were partly allocated in safer assets, namely gold, Treasuries and TIPS. The new Economic Regime: Rising rates One thing has been clear this past year: The Fed and other central … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for December 2021

Corona virus is back again After several months of perceived calm, in late November increasing SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in Europe and news about the new variant Omicron, B.1.1.529, classified by the WHO as of concern, shook markets again. Not helping were also economic reports confirming inflation rates might not be as transitory as perceived in previous months, but rather here to stay – thus increasing the pressure on central banks to start the tapering process … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for November 2021

Everything is green again October was an exceptional month for our strategies. Our newest and most aggressive one, the Crypto and Leveraged Top 2 returned an exceptional 45% for the month. Our non-crypto leveraged strategies also had a good month as equity (SPY +7%), bonds (TLT 2.5%) and gold (GLD 1.5%) returns were all positive. For October, our long running Universal Investment Strategy 3x Leveraged strategy returned 13%, our US 2x Market strategy 11% while … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for October 2021

All assets drop in unison. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, says tapering of bond buying coming ‘soon’… CNBC, September 22nd 2021 September was one of these months where all asset classes came out negative regardless of what they represent. It is no coincidence that the FED issued a statement about future tapering of it’s stimulus program. The S&P 500 fell by -4.7%, the long term Treasury ETF lost (TLT) -2.9% and gold -3.2%. Looking … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for September 2021

All strategies in the Green For August all our strategies had positive with returns from +0.2% to +6.7%. Our recent crypto strategy was the top performer followed by the 3x UIS strategy with a 3.2% return. Outlook Here three different long term weekly charts of three different indices. The above looks like a cryptocurrency chart but it is not. It is the QQQ ETF going back to 2000 and includes the 2001-2003 Nasdaq bear market. … Read more

The Coronavirus Market Crash – Lessons learned

coronavirus market crash 2020

Logical Invest in Bearish Mode Since January At the start of the year, before the CORVID-19 outbreak was known, we updated our strategies to better withstand a possible bear market or large correction. You can read the details here. A Two-Stage Correction In the first stage, hedges like gold and Treasuries worked well. Although the SP 500 took a free fall, the 30-year Treasury ETF went parabolic up as the 10-year yield touched 0.6%. Gold … Read more

Short Volatility: A short analysis of the actual ZIV performance after the July 2014 stock market selloff


This monthly premium of being short volatility is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green VIX chart. Every spike corresponds to a fear spike of the investors. During such spikes we also have smaller market corrections. During these market corrections ZIV is going down, because the … Read more

The end of the turn of the month effect? Strategy and re-balancing during end-of-month


Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month, called the turn of the month effect. Is the turn of the month effect still effective? Here is an turn of the month effect example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. Turn of the … Read more

Logical-Invest review @ Daily Fintech


With a lot of hype about FinTech these days, we´re happy to have received a positive review from one of the most important FinTech blogs. What is FinTech? Here the definition of FinTech by Investopedia: Fintech is a portmanteau of financial technology that describes an emerging financial services sector in the 21st century. Originally, the term applied to technology applied to the back-end of established consumer and trade financial institutions. A review of Logical Invest by … Read more

Build Custom ETF Portfolios: Mid Year Review Portfolio Builder


For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:

We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”.
The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.