Market Environment

The Logical-Invest newsletter for February 2024

All quiet on the western front All seems to be going well in the investment world, at least according to the mainstream media. Major central banks have successfully raised interest rates, taming runaway inflation which is now decreasing towards a desired 2%, or at worst a manageable 3%. All done without so much as cracking an egg, avoiding a recession or causing any pain to equity investors. The so called ‘soft landing’ is underway and … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for January 2024

Winners 2023 turned out to be fantastic year for LI investors. Top performer: Our Crypto & Leveraged Top 2 Strategy was the top performer, achieving an incredible 86.3%. It ended the year holding SPXL and TMF instead of crypto. This strategy invests in top performers across a selection of crypto, equity, treasury, and precious metal assets with similar volatility characteristics. It is a highly aggressive strategy that rebalances twice a month and requires access to … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for December 2023

Taming Inflation The stock market surged an unprecedented 9.1% in November, accounting for almost half of its 20% year-to-date returns in a single month. This price action can be partly attributed to lower inflation and a sense that global interest rate policies are effective. In the U.S., a recent jobs report showed fewer new jobs and an uptick in unemployment. Although negative for the economy, this adds to the sense that the Fed’s efforts to … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for November 2023

Geopolitical risk raises gold The unprecedented attack on Israel on October 7th and its subsequent response have heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. This conflict is drawing in the U.S., as well as regional actors like Iran, Egypt and Turkey, raising the risk of a wider war that could destabilize the global economy. In this context, gold has found its purpose as a safe-haven asset, rising 7.4% in October and threatening to breach the … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for October 2023

September has turned out not to be a great month for equities, with the S&P down 4.7%. However, this is not particularly worrisome, as the index is still only 10% off its all-time high and has a respectable 13% YTD performance. Economic Stress There are other factors worth mentioning, as we observe unusual activity in the markets. It’s best to consult some charts. Just looking at the index below, it is unclear whether the S&P … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for September 2023

August correction The current month has seen its fair share of market turbulence, with the S&P 500 experiencing a modest decline of 1.7%. While this dip breaks a five-month winning streak, it’s important to keep in mind the broader context. The Nasdaq Composite boasted an exceptional first half of the year, and the S&P 500’s year-to-date gains remain an impressive 18.6%. Seasonal Trends August historically presents challenges for the SP500, so a slight correction is … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for August 2023

Latin america

The Bull continues – All strategies positive for the month In July, all our strategies were positive as the SP500 price nears it’s all time high. South America first to lower rates The Federal Reserve (FED) paused rate hikes last month, creating expectations of a possible plateau in tightening policy. However, it surprised the market by deciding to raise rates in July by 0.25%, signaling its continued commitment to fighting inflation. Meanwhile, in Chile, the central bank held … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for July 2023

Bull breaking free

The unexpected Bull At the beginning of 2023, there was a prevailing sense of negativity as both the S&P 500 and bonds experienced significant double-digit losses. However, in our 2022 end-of-year newsletter, we argued that not only one should stay invested, they should anticipate a minimum return of 4.7%. This projection was based on the risk-free yield of a 1-year Treasury. Our average strategy return surpassed expectations, reaching 7.3%. This unexpected bullish market appeared out … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for June 2023

Summertime In May, we witnessed yet another episode of the U.S. debt ceiling drama, which has become a recurring theme for seasoned investors. However, this spectacle appears more like a theatrical performance rather than a true reflection of reality. It is difficult to fathom that U.S. politicians would willingly harm their own economy by allowing a default event to occur. Nevertheless, in this age of social media influence, there seems to be a fervent desire … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for May 2023

Don’t bid farewell in May and hit the hay, just hedge your way and stay in the play… As we enter a seasonally sluggish period for equities it may be best to stay in the markets but use our hedged strategies to gain exposure to alternative assets such as gold, volatility, TIPS, crypto and foreign markets. See our main strategies ranked, here: https://logical-invest.com/app/testRank.php Access our full list of sub-strategies ranked here: https://logical-invest.com/app/asset_list.php Outlook As U.S. … Read more