Logical Invest in Bearish Mode Since January At the start of the year, before the CORVID-19 outbreak was known, we updated our strategies to better withstand a possible bear market or large correction. You can read the details here. A Two-Stage Correction In the first stage, hedges like gold and Treasuries worked well. Although the SP 500 took a free fall, the 30-year Treasury ETF went parabolic up as the 10-year yield touched 0.6%. Gold … Read more
This monthly premium of being short volatility is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green VIX chart. Every spike corresponds to a fear spike of the investors. During such spikes we also have smaller market corrections. During these market corrections ZIV is going down, because the … Read more
Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month, called the turn of the month effect. Is the turn of the month effect still effective? Here is an turn of the month effect example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. Turn of the … Read more
With a lot of hype about FinTech these days, we´re happy to have received a positive review from one of the most important FinTech blogs. What is FinTech? Here the definition of FinTech by Investopedia: Fintech is a portmanteau of financial technology that describes an emerging financial services sector in the 21st century. Originally, the term applied to technology applied to the back-end of established consumer and trade financial institutions. A review of Logical Invest by … Read more
For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:
We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”.
The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.
We often we concentrate on U.S. indexes and Treasuries and miss the bigger picture in our investments. Here are some interesting charts of the Commitment of Traders to remind us of the current state of the market and keep track of our investments. Keep in mind that unlike equities, forex and commodity prices do have a strong impact on the real economy and imbalances are hard to bear by the respective economies, thus affecting our … Read more
I have been asked in several emails on how to go on with existing ZIV positions, so here is a short note for our subscribers which still hold MYRS/ZIV positions. As you know underlying to ZIV are short positions of the VIX Futures month 4-7. So ZIV moves are about the same as the moves of the medium price of these Futures. As you can see in the above VIX term-structure chart, the medium price … Read more
If you are a European investor and using Interactive Brokers (U.K.) as your broker you were in for a surprise this past week: Most major U.S. ETFs like SPY, TLT, GLD are unavailable for trading to retail traders. From justETF: “The culprit is PRIIPs – a set of EU investment regulations designed to protect consumers (PRIIPs stands for Packaged Retail Investment and Insurance Products). PRIIPs require fund providers (including ETFs) to produce a Key Information … Read more
U.S. based ETFs are still unavailable for E.U. based investors due to the PRIPPS/ KID regulation discussed in the previous note. In this article we will list some alternative European based ETFs that could be used to follow a few of the Logical Investment strategies. So far the alternative ways to trade LI strategies as a EU citizen are: A. Try to qualify for professional status with your broker under MiFID II rules. Guidelines may … Read more