Market Environment Archives - Page 4 of 5

The Logical-Invest newsletter for November 2021

Everything is green again October was an exceptional month for our strategies. Our newest and most aggressive one, the Crypto and Leveraged Top 2 returned an exceptional 45% for the month. Our non-crypto leveraged strategies also had a good month as equity (SPY +7%), bonds (TLT 2.5%) and gold (GLD 1.5%) returns were all positive. For October, our long running Universal Investment Strategy 3x Leveraged strategy returned 13%, our US 2x Market strategy 11% while … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for October 2021

All assets drop in unison. Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, says tapering of bond buying coming ‘soon’… CNBC, September 22nd 2021 September was one of these months where all asset classes came out negative regardless of what they represent. It is no coincidence that the FED issued a statement about future tapering of it’s stimulus program. The S&P 500 fell by -4.7%, the long term Treasury ETF lost (TLT) -2.9% and gold -3.2%. Looking … Read more

The Logical-Invest newsletter for September 2021

All strategies in the Green For August all our strategies had positive with returns from +0.2% to +6.7%. Our recent crypto strategy was the top performer followed by the 3x UIS strategy with a 3.2% return. Outlook Here three different long term weekly charts of three different indices. The above looks like a cryptocurrency chart but it is not. It is the QQQ ETF going back to 2000 and includes the 2001-2003 Nasdaq bear market. … Read more

The Coronavirus Market Crash – Lessons learned

Logical Invest in Bearish Mode Since January At the start of the year, before the CORVID-19 outbreak was known, we updated our strategies to better withstand a possible bear market or large correction. You can read the details here. A Two-Stage Correction In the first stage, hedges like gold and Treasuries worked well. Although the SP 500 took a free fall, the 30-year Treasury ETF went parabolic up as the 10-year yield touched 0.6%. Gold … Read more

Short Volatility: A short analysis of the actual ZIV performance after the July 2014 stock market selloff

BlogBlogSHYTLHTLTTMVVIXVIXFuturesVIXIndexVolatility

This monthly premium of being short volatility is the only thing which makes the ZIV price go up. Unfortunately there is a second quite strong influence on the ZIV price. This is the market volatility (VIX). In the chart below you see the green VIX chart. Every spike corresponds to a fear spike of the investors. During such spikes we also have smaller market corrections. During these market corrections ZIV is going down, because the … Read more

PRIPPS and KID compliant ETFs for European investors

U.S. based ETFs are still unavailable for E.U. based investors due to the PRIPPS/ KID regulation discussed in the previous note. In this article we will list some alternative European based ETFs that could be used to follow a few of the Logical Investment strategies. So far the alternative ways to trade LI strategies as a EU citizen are: A. Try to qualify for professional status with your broker under MiFID II rules. Guidelines may … Read more

U.S. ETFs unavailable to European investors: PRIPPS and KID

If you are a European investor and using Interactive Brokers (U.K.) as your broker you were in for a surprise this past week: Most major U.S. ETFs like SPY, TLT, GLD are unavailable for trading to retail traders. From justETF: “The culprit is PRIIPs – a set of EU investment regulations designed to protect consumers (PRIIPs stands for Packaged Retail Investment and Insurance Products). PRIIPs require fund providers (including ETFs) to produce a Key Information … Read more

ZIV/MYRS – how to go on after the crash

I have been asked in several emails on how to go on with existing ZIV positions, so here is a short note for our subscribers which still hold MYRS/ZIV positions. As you know underlying to ZIV are short positions of the VIX Futures month 4-7. So ZIV moves are about the same as the moves of the medium price of these Futures. As you can see in the above VIX term-structure chart, the medium price … Read more

Commitment of Traders: The bigger picture on investments

We often we concentrate on U.S. indexes and Treasuries and miss the bigger picture in our investments. Here are some interesting charts of the Commitment of Traders to remind us of the current state of the market and keep track of our investments. Keep in mind that unlike equities, forex and commodity prices do have a strong impact on the real economy and imbalances are hard to bear by the respective economies, thus affecting our … Read more

Build Custom ETF Portfolios: Mid Year Review Portfolio Builder

For our „All Strategies“ Subscriber who use the Portfolio Builder to blend their own mix of Logical Invest Strategies, here some updates and a short mid-year review:

We have now included the “World Top 4 Strategy” into both the online an offline tool. To keep the charts readable, we opted for replacing the Aggressive Version of our “Global Sector Rotation”.
The preconfigured and optimized Markowitz Portfolios have been updated, only slight changes in the allocations occurred – all are <5%, so in most cases these can be neglected due to account size.