Blog

Fail-Safe Investing – The “straight” BUG with no leverage

vintage beetle ad straight

In a previous post we introduced our new investment strategy, the BUG. There has been a lot of interest but also some concerns when it comes to using leverage. We are introducing a version of the BUG for non-leveraged accounts.

In this version we allocate amongst 6 ETFs: SPY, TLT, GLS, CWB, TIP and PCY. Again as in the original strategy we use these heuristics: Timing (using a simple average rule), Volatility Targeting (we reduce exposure to more volatile ETFs), Momentum (we reduce the size of the worst performer and add to the rest). We don’t employ short term mean reversion and we only trade up to 4 assets.

The new reviewed Bond Rotation Strategy

BRSnew

From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation, to make is more suitable as IRA or 401k Investment Strategy. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) BOND – PIMCO Total Return ETF CWB – SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond HYLD – AdvisorShs Peritus … Read more

The Power of Diversification: Portfolio Diversification with Logical Invest Strategies

Portfolio Diversification

Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).

Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.

20 years Strategy backtest of our Universal Investment Strategy

yearsStrategybacktestofourUniversalInvestmentStrategy

This strategy backtest uses the Vanguard VFINX/VUSTX index funds as a proxy to the SPY/TLT ETFs. With these Vanguard funds I have made a 20 year backtest for the UIS strategy. 20 years Strategy backtest of our Universal Investment Strategy I made this strategy backtest, because many subscribers asked for it, and because with these two Vanguard funds, this is also one of the only strategies which can be backtested for such a long period. In … Read more

Shorting Volatility: Comparison of ZIV replacements in MYRS

Shorting Volatility with ZIV

Here is a comparison of different ZIV replacement ETFs in the MYRS strategy, shorting volatility. Going long ZIV is the most simple way to execute the strategy. ZIV is in fact an inverse ETF, so even if ZIV does not have leverage, ZIV needs to be rebalanced daily. Rebalanced ETFs in general have losses. These losses become bigger with higher volatility.  Shorting Volatility the smart way On the chart below you can see the quite poor ZIV performance … Read more

The end of the turn of the month effect? Strategy and re-balancing during end-of-month

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Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month, called the turn of the month effect. Is the turn of the month effect still effective? Here is an turn of the month effect example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. Turn of the … Read more

The new enhanced Bond Rotation Strategy with adaptive allocation

AdaptiveAllocationBRSchart

On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) as excelent diversifier for a 401k Investment Portfolio. Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy with adaptive allocation. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here: https://logical-invest.com/strategy/bond-rotation-sleep-well/), I think it is very important to constantly validate and improve any investment strategy. Markets change, ETFs change even we ourselves grow and learn. Especially … Read more

Portfolio optimization: The all new Portfolio Builder

portfolio optimization tool

  From individual Strategies to Portfolio Optimization Based on the interest of our followers and our own investment philosophy, we have gradually evolved from offering single quantitative strategies towards blends or portfolios of strategies. The way we visualize our own development cycle might be best summarized in a chart: Where are we on this path and where are we heading? We believe we have now a stable set of ‘core-strategies’, which cover a broad spectrum … Read more

Update Portfolio Builder: Now including Universal Investment Strategy with 3x leverage

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By request of several followers, we have now included the version with 3x leverage of the Universal Investment Strategy using synthetic SPXL and TMF data from 2002. Portfolio Builder now with leverage We’re about to publish a full article on this exciting option for this weekend, but want to pre-alert you about this upcoming adition. While this is a very aggressive strategy with leverage, it blends very nicely with a 10%-20% allocation into a portfolio … Read more

‘Hell on Fire’: The 3x leveraged Universal Investment Strategy

leveraged universal investment Strategy

Summary:
-Aggressive leveraged version of our previously published Universal Investment Strategy
-Variable SPY-TLT allocations dynamically adapted to the market conditions.
-45% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 since 2002.

Due to its simplicity and low correlation to the S&P 500, there is a continued interest in the UIS version that uses 3x leveraged ETFs: ETF SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF). Following the suggested nomenclature by Al from AAII SV – and to honor their interest, we call this version “Hell on fire”, which alludes to the high risk/return profile of the strategy. We will show ways to blend this strategy in a well-balanced and risk-optimized portfolio as to overcome the generally negative perception of private investors towards leveraged ETF.