MARKET

Strategies For Trading Inverse Volatility

trading investing in inverse volatility ziv vix ziv vxx futures

Update: You can see the most recent performance our our inverse volatility strategy here. Consult vixcentral for the daily VIC term curve. In this paper, I present five different strategies you can use to trade inverse volatility. Why trade inverse volatility you ask? Because since 2011, trading inverse volatility was probably the most rewarding investment an investor could make in the markets. Annual returns of between 40% – 100% have been possible which crushes any other … Read more

A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation

adaptiveAGGBondBondRotationStrategyBond

Update: See the current performance of this ETF investment strategy here. A new enhanced Global Market Rotation Strategy with adaptive ETF investment allocation The GMR strategy performed well during the last 10 years. Especially during years with a strong trend in one of the 5 world markets, this strategy was able to switch early to the best ETF and stay invested until another market ETF took the lead. A known problem for such monthly rotation strategies … Read more

New Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy backtest charts

MYRSchartmarketrotationstrategyMaximumYieldRotationStrategyMDY

Here are two backtests charts of the new MYRS strategy with adaptive allocation, now also suitable for your retirement account. The annual return of the old and the new strategy is more or less the same. During low volatility markets, the return of the new strategy is probably slightly lower, however during difficult volatile years like 2014, the return of the new strategy is significantly higher and the drawdowns and the risk is reduced nearly by a … Read more

Backtest: New adaptive Global Market Rotation backtester

New GMRS Backtester ETF Rotation Investment Strategy Volatility

I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtest software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS and GMRS. Since 2017, QuantTrader, this backtest software is now also available for retail and institutional investors, see here. Our backtest software QuantTrader now available Below you see a 2 year graph showing the Global … Read more

The SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS)

Universal Investment Strategy ETF Rotation Investment Strategy Volatility

Introduction to the SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) This paper discusses the simple but effective method of using adaptive allocations between stock market ETFs and Treasuries to assemble a simple yet smart Investment Strategy. This method has been developed to replace the 100% switching used in normal rotation strategies like the Maximum Yield Rotation and the Global Market Rotation strategies. The real world is just not a 100% “risk on” or “risk off” world. Most of … Read more

Permanent Portfolio – Will We Ever Kill The Bug?

permanent portfolio all weather fail save investment harry browne brownes bond term

An analysis of Harry Browne´s Permanent Portfolio and further enhancements towards:  A Permanent Portfolio ETF Rotation Strategy employing Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Volatility Targeting. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies like the permanent portfolio, too. Vintage “all-weather” investment strategies are often simple, easy to execute and give amble ‘out-of-sample’ data. In other words one can see how they performed in life years after they have been proposed. And like the VW bug, they are … Read more

The new reviewed Bond Rotation Strategy

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From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation, to make is more suitable as IRA or 401k Investment Strategy. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) BOND – PIMCO Total Return ETF CWB – SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond HYLD – AdvisorShs Peritus … Read more

The Power of Diversification: Portfolio Diversification with Logical Invest Strategies

Portfolio Diversification

Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).

Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.

20 years Strategy backtest of our Universal Investment Strategy

yearsStrategybacktestofourUniversalInvestmentStrategy

This strategy backtest uses the Vanguard VFINX/VUSTX index funds as a proxy to the SPY/TLT ETFs. With these Vanguard funds I have made a 20 year backtest for the UIS strategy. 20 years Strategy backtest of our Universal Investment Strategy I made this strategy backtest, because many subscribers asked for it, and because with these two Vanguard funds, this is also one of the only strategies which can be backtested for such a long period. In … Read more

The end of the turn of the month effect? Strategy and re-balancing during end-of-month

EOMkIRAretirementinvestment

Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month, called the turn of the month effect. Is the turn of the month effect still effective? Here is an turn of the month effect example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. Turn of the … Read more