Investment Strategies

Backtest: New adaptive Global Market Rotation backtester

New GMRS Backtester ETF Rotation Investment Strategy Volatility

I just want to share a screenshot of the new backtest software, we have written in C# to calculate and backtest the new adaptive logical-invest strategies. This software can be used to calculate the variable allocation for the MYRS, GSRS and GMRS. Since 2017, QuantTrader, this backtest software is now also available for retail and institutional investors, see here. Our backtest software QuantTrader now available Below you see a 2 year graph showing the Global … Read more

The SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS)

Universal Investment Strategy ETF Rotation Investment Strategy Volatility

Introduction to the SPY-TLT Universal Investment Strategy (UIS) This paper discusses the simple but effective method of using adaptive allocations between stock market ETFs and Treasuries to assemble a simple yet smart Investment Strategy. This method has been developed to replace the 100% switching used in normal rotation strategies like the Maximum Yield Rotation and the Global Market Rotation strategies. The real world is just not a 100% “risk on” or “risk off” world. Most of … Read more

Permanent Portfolio – Will We Ever Kill The Bug?

permanent portfolio all weather fail save investment harry browne brownes bond term

An analysis of Harry Browne´s Permanent Portfolio and further enhancements towards:  A Permanent Portfolio ETF Rotation Strategy employing Momentum, Mean Reversion, and Volatility Targeting. It’s not just cars. It’s investment strategies like the permanent portfolio, too. Vintage “all-weather” investment strategies are often simple, easy to execute and give amble ‘out-of-sample’ data. In other words one can see how they performed in life years after they have been proposed. And like the VW bug, they are … Read more

Fail-Safe Investing – The “straight” BUG with no leverage

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In a previous post we introduced our new investment strategy, the BUG. There has been a lot of interest but also some concerns when it comes to using leverage. We are introducing a version of the BUG for non-leveraged accounts.

In this version we allocate amongst 6 ETFs: SPY, TLT, GLS, CWB, TIP and PCY. Again as in the original strategy we use these heuristics: Timing (using a simple average rule), Volatility Targeting (we reduce exposure to more volatile ETFs), Momentum (we reduce the size of the worst performer and add to the rest). We don’t employ short term mean reversion and we only trade up to 4 assets.

The new reviewed Bond Rotation Strategy

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From the next strategy email on, the Bond Rotation Strategy will also use adaptive ETF allocation, to make is more suitable as IRA or 401k Investment Strategy. This new technique allows a 30% higher Sharpe (return to risk) ratio. Together with this change we have also changed the ETF selection from the old: AGG – iShares Core Total US Bond (4-5yr) BOND – PIMCO Total Return ETF CWB – SPDR Barclays Convertible Bond HYLD – AdvisorShs Peritus … Read more

The Power of Diversification: Portfolio Diversification with Logical Invest Strategies

Portfolio Diversification

Diversification is a cornerstone to successful investing. In simple form, when measurably diverse assets are combined in a portfolio, the investors portfolio risks are reduced without any sacrifice of returns. This is a rare “free lunch”, it is well accepted part of modern financial portfolios, and to stay financially healthy it is important not to skip lunch. When one asset is going down while the other is going up, the portfolios risk is reduced without the normal penalty of risk/return trade-offs. We take advantage of that when our systems dynamically blend things like the S&P 500 and treasury bonds, which often exhibit negative correlation to each other (which is ideal).

Applying Portfolio Diversification to Strategies: Our subscribers can take this take a step further. Our investing algorithms take on a blend of the properties of their underlying assets combined with the “alpha” edges from the investing rules. The returns of each investing strategy should be thought of as an asset, which are different and unique from the underlying holdings. So holding a portfolio of strategies functions much like holding a portfolio of assets. To evaluate the risk profile of the strategy, we examine the history of the returns of those strategies, much like when holding a basket of stocks the historical returns of each stock would be evaluated.

Invest in VIX volatility using ZIV

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Update January 2017: The recent performance of investing in volatility can be seen here. You are probably wondering how we could achieve yearly performances of more than 50% with some of our rotation strategies. The reason is that the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy and the Global Market Rotation Enhanced Strategy are investing in inverse volatility. Invest in inverse Volatility So, here are now some facts to show you why I like inverse volatility so much. … Read more

Shorting Volatility: Comparison of ZIV replacements in MYRS

Shorting Volatility with ZIV

Here is a comparison of different ZIV replacement ETFs in the MYRS strategy, shorting volatility. Going long ZIV is the most simple way to execute the strategy. ZIV is in fact an inverse ETF, so even if ZIV does not have leverage, ZIV needs to be rebalanced daily. Rebalanced ETFs in general have losses. These losses become bigger with higher volatility.  Shorting Volatility the smart way On the chart below you can see the quite poor ZIV performance … Read more

The end of the turn of the month effect? Strategy and re-balancing during end-of-month

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Historically and up to 2013, equities have exhibited a positive bias during the end of the month, called the turn of the month effect. Is the turn of the month effect still effective? Here is an turn of the month effect example of buying the SPY etf on the first down-day after the 23rd and selling on the first up-day of the next month . Trading is at the same day close. Turn of the … Read more

The new enhanced Bond Rotation Strategy with adaptive allocation

AdaptiveAllocationBRSchart

On November 2013 I published the first SA article on the Bond Rotation Strategy (BRS) as excelent diversifier for a 401k Investment Portfolio. Now, 15 months later, I am presenting an important update for this strategy with adaptive allocation. Even though the old strategy has done well (see charts here: https://logical-invest.com/strategy/bond-rotation-sleep-well/), I think it is very important to constantly validate and improve any investment strategy. Markets change, ETFs change even we ourselves grow and learn. Especially … Read more