Description

The Nasdaq 100 Strategy is a good way to ride the extraordinary momentum of the Nasdaq 100 Index while keeping some protection from market downturns. It is also a great alternative for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based stock selection strategy.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Nasdaq 100 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The existence of price momentum has been heavily studied and well documented over the years. It reveals itself in assets that have strong absolute performance or performance relative to their peers. Logical Invest has exploited asset class and sector momentum in many of our strategies for years. We have found individual stock momentum tends to be an even stronger force, particularly in the top NASDAQ stocks. When properly identified, it can be capitalized on to provide an investment edge.

During bull markets, and especially "risk off" periods, the strongest NASDAQ stocks typically beat the market handily. However, they can also get ahead of themselves which makes them more vulnerable during "risk on" periods. To manage those challenges, the strategy incorporates several advanced methodologies:

  1. Mean Reversion - Momentum is based on the principle of buying high and selling higher, however, as most investors have experienced, stocks that rise too quickly can also have short-term corrections. The strategy uses a mean reversion component to penalize stocks that rise too much or too fast.
  2. Protection - The strategy allocates a portion to treasuries to balance out the supercharged Nasdaq momentum stocks. This improves risk adjusted returns and moderates strategy drawdowns. The model also allocates more to treasuries if the overall Nasdaq 100 index exhibits momentum weakness.
  3. Intelligent Ranking - Our algorithms ensures we get the right blend of stocks that work well together and have an allocation to each individual stock that reflects its volatility in relation to other stocks.
Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Additionally, the model may allocate some funds to TMF (Direxion 3x leveraged 20-yr Treasury) or to UGLD (VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN). This helps mitigate risk during certain market environments.

You may also use one of the alternative versions:

NASDAQ 100 Balanced unhedged Strategy
NASDAQ 100 Leaders Strategy
NASDAQ 100 Low volatility Strategy

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 458.7%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (94.6%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (28.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 80.2% is larger, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual performance (CAGR) of 41.1% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (14.3%)
  • Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 21.7% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (8.6%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 18.7% of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 15.6%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 17.4% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 11.9% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (15%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 10%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.1% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 2.07 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.56)
  • During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 1.23, which is higher, thus better than the value of 0.35 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The excess return divided by the downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 3.24, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.78) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 1.92, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.5 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 4.45 of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 4.42 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is -19.7 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -11.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (-24.5 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 300 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 300 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 54 days of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 76 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 178 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.