Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 861.8%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (97.6%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (31.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value of 181.2% is higher, thus better.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57.4% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14.6%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 41.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to QQQ (9.7%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the historical 30 days volatility of 30.6% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (26.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 27.1%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 24.1% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 20% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (18.7%)
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 17.1%, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 16.9% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 1.79 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.46)
  • Compared with QQQ (0.3) in the period of the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.43 is higher, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.75 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.65)
  • Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 2.27 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to QQQ (0.42).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 7.63 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 7.47 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 17 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is -31.2 days, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • Looking at maximum reduction from previous high in of -18.1 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to QQQ (-35.1 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 299 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (444 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (444 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 299 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (106 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 59 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 79 days, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 149 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.