Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 1065.4% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (157.2%)
  • Looking at total return, or performance in of 73.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (27%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 63.5% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (20.8%)
  • Compared with QQQ (8.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) of 20.1% is greater, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The volatility over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 31.3%, which is larger, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (25.5%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (23.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 24.4% is greater, thus worse.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (18%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 20% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (16.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 16.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.95 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.72)
  • Looking at Sharpe Ratio in of 0.72 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (0.24).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (1.02) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 3.04 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is 1.08, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.35 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The Ulcer Ratio over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 7.91 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 8.27 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 17 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -31.2 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -18.1 days, which is higher, thus better than the value of -35.1 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 299 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (493 days)
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 299 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (493 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 61 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (122 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (178 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average days below previous high of 86 days is smaller, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.