Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy that uses proprietary risk-adjusted momentum to pick the most appropriate 4 NASDAQ 100 stocks. It is part for the Nasdaq 100 hedged strategy where it is combined with a variable hedge.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 443.8% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (135.3%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or increase in value is 87.7%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 91.1% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (18.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 40.5% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (24.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 23.5% is lower, thus worse.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (23.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the volatility of 28.4% of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 25.8%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 22.7% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 18.6%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (16.3%) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk in of 17.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (15.1%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.69) in the period of the last 5 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.33 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (0.96) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 0.81 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is 2.04, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (1) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.23 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (1.44).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Downside risk index of 8.94 of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at Ulcer Ratio in of 9.29 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (7.9 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -25.8 days of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (-22.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -25.8 days is lower, thus worse.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 299 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (493 days)
  • Compared with QQQ (190 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 134 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days under water of 67 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (122 days)
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 43 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (47 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Balanced Unhedged Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.