Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 132.7% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (135.3%)
  • Compared with QQQ (91.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 7.7% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the annual return (CAGR) of 18.5% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (18.7%)
  • Looking at annual performance (CAGR) in of 2.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (24.2%).

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 16.1%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (23.5%) in the same period.
  • Looking at 30 days standard deviation in of 14.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (22.7%).

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 10.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (16.3%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (15.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 10.1% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.99 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.69)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (0.96).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio improves upon the Sharpe ratio by isolating downside volatility from total volatility by dividing excess return by the downside deviation. The Sortino ratio is a variation of the Sharpe ratio that differentiates harmful volatility from total overall volatility by using the asset's standard deviation of negative asset returns, called downside deviation. The Sortino ratio takes the asset's return and subtracts the risk-free rate, and then divides that amount by the asset's downside deviation. The ratio was named after Frank A. Sortino.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside risk / excess return profile over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 1.53, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (1) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.44) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Index of 5.52 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index is 6.55 , which is lower, thus better than the value of 7.9 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is -13.6 days, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown is -13.6 days, which is greater, thus better than the value of -22.8 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 273 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (190 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 273 days is larger, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days below previous high of 60 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 84 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 47 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.