Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (93.6%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 26.5% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the total return is 1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 87.4% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 4.8%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (14.2%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 0.3%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 23.4% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (22.8%) in the period of the last 5 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 14% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at historical 30 days volatility in of 13.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to QQQ (20.3%).

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside volatility of 9.8% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (15.9%)
  • Compared with QQQ (13.9%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 9.7% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The risk / return profile (Sharpe) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 0.17, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark QQQ (0.51) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.03) in the period of the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio of -0.16 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.24 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.74)
  • Compared with QQQ (1.51) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of -0.22 is smaller, thus worse.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the Downside risk index of 6.69 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14 )
  • Compared with QQQ (4.87 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 6.86 is greater, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -15.2 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (-22.8 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -15.2 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum days under water of 439 days in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (493 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark is 439 days, which is higher, thus worse than the value of 113 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (124 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 124 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is greater, thus worse.
  • Looking at average days below previous high in of 164 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus worse in comparison to QQQ (30 days).

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.