Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (85.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or increase in value of 43.2% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (98.5%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return, or performance of 4.8% is smaller, thus worse.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (13.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5% of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 1.6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 25.8% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'In finance, volatility (symbol σ) is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time as measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the volatility of 14% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (22.6%)
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 13.7%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 19.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The downside risk over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 9.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (15.7%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (13.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.7% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.48) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.36 of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus worse.
  • Compared with QQQ (1.19) in the period of the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of -0.07 is lower, thus worse.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (0.68) in the period of the last 5 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 0.51 of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside risk / excess return profile is -0.09, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 1.76 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 6.27 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (14 )
  • During the last 3 years, the Downside risk index is 7.24 , which is greater, thus worse than the value of 4.69 from the benchmark.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -15.2 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is higher, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -15.2 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to QQQ (-22.8 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 324 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (85 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high of 324 days is greater, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (121 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 89 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is lower, thus better.
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 127 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 25 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.