Description

The NASDAQ 100 is a sub-strategy.

Methodology & Assets

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or increase in value of 182.2% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (162.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 26.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 34.8% from the benchmark.

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (21.3%)
  • During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 8.1%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 10.5% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 19.4%, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (25.5%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the volatility is 13.1%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 23.8% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 13.2%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (18%) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (16.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside risk of 9.1% is smaller, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 1.06 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark QQQ (0.74)
  • Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 0.43 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to QQQ (0.34).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 1.56, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (1.04) in the same period.
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.61 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to QQQ (0.48).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 5.98 , which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (14 ) in the same period.
  • Looking at Downside risk index in of 6.07 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to QQQ (17 ).

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown measures the loss in any losing period during a fund’s investment record. It is defined as the percent retrenchment from a fund’s peak value to the fund’s valley value. The drawdown is in effect from the time the fund’s retrenchment begins until a new fund high is reached. The maximum drawdown encompasses both the period from the fund’s peak to the fund’s valley (length), and the time from the fund’s valley to a new fund high (recovery). It measures the largest percentage drawdown that has occurred in any fund’s data record.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -29.3 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is greater, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (-35.1 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum DrawDown of -13.6 days is greater, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is 273 days, which is smaller, thus better compared to the benchmark QQQ (493 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with QQQ (493 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 273 days is lower, thus better.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark QQQ (122 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average days under water of 52 days of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy is smaller, thus better.
  • Compared with QQQ (179 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 71 days is lower, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Low Volatility Sub-strategy are hypothetical and do not account for slippage, fees or taxes.
  • Results may be based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.