The Nasdaq 100 Strategy is a good way to ride the extraordinary momentum of the Nasdaq 100 Index while keeping some protection from market downturns. It is also a great alternative for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based stock selection strategy.

The strategy uses a risk-adjusted momentum algorithm to choose the top four Nasdaq 100 stocks with a variable allocation to treasuries or gold to smooth the equity curve and provide crash protection in bear markets. The strategy combines well with our more conservative strategies, such as the Bond Rotation Strategy or BUG, or with one of our non-U.S. equity strategies such as World Top 4, to form a well balanced portfolio.

The existence of price momentum has been heavily studied and well documented over the years. It reveals itself in assets that have strong absolute performance or performance relative to their peers. Logical Invest has exploited asset class and sector momentum in many of our strategies for years. We have found individual stock momentum tends to be an even stronger force, particularly in the top NASDAQ stocks. When properly identified, it can be capitalized on to provide an investment edge.

During bull markets, and especially "risk off" periods, the strongest NASDAQ stocks typically beat the market handily. However, they can also get ahead of themselves which makes them more vulnerable during "risk on" periods. To manage those challenges, the strategy incorporates several advanced methodologies:

- Mean Reversion - Momentum is based on the principle of buying high and selling higher, however, as most investors have experienced, stocks that rise too quickly can also have short-term corrections. The strategy uses a mean reversion component to penalize stocks that rise too much or too fast.
- Protection - The strategy allocates a portion to treasuries to balance out the supercharged Nasdaq momentum stocks. This improves risk adjusted returns and moderates strategy drawdowns. The model also allocates more to treasuries if the overall Nasdaq 100 index exhibits momentum weakness.
- Intelligent Ranking - Our algorithms ensures we get the right blend of stocks that work well together and have an allocation to each individual stock that reflects its volatility in relation to other stocks.

The model chooses four individual stocks from the NASDAQ 100 stock index. So depending on what stocks are in the NASDAQ 100, the stock rotation formula might include the new ones.

Additionally, the model may allocate some funds to TMF (Direxion 3x leveraged 20-yr Treasury) or to UGLD (VelocityShares 3x Long Gold ETN). This helps mitigate risk during certain market environments.

You may also use one of the alternative versions:

NASDAQ 100 Balanced unhedged Strategy

NASDAQ 100 Leaders Strategy

NASDAQ 100 Low volatility Strategy

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investmentâ€™s overall performance.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (61.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 437% of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is greater, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the total return, or performance is 218.2%, which is larger, thus better than the value of 79.4% from the benchmark.

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- The annual return (CAGR) over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 40%, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (10.1%) in the same period.
- Looking at annual return (CAGR) in of 47.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (21.5%).

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the volatility of 18.4% in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (21.5%)
- Compared with SPY (21.2%) in the period of the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility of 19.7% is lower, thus better.

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (15.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 11.8% of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is lower, thus better.
- Looking at downside volatility in of 12.3% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (14.1%).

'The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe, and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk. Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. One intuition of this calculation is that a portfolio engaging in 'zero risk' investments, such as the purchase of U.S. Treasury bills (for which the expected return is the risk-free rate), has a Sharpe ratio of exactly zero. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 2.04 in the last 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.36)
- Looking at risk / return profile (Sharpe) in of 2.26 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.9).

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The ratio of annual return and downside deviation over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 3.17, which is greater, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.49) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (1.35) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 3.64 is larger, thus better.

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:- The Ulcer Index over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is 5.08 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (9.15 ) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (9.78 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 4.68 is lower, thus better.

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- The maximum DrawDown over 5 years of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is -19.7 days, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the same period.
- Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -11.8 days is larger, thus better.

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs) in days.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (305 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days under water of 300 days of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is smaller, thus better.
- Looking at maximum days under water in of 300 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (305 days).

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:- Compared with the benchmark SPY (65 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 63 days of NASDAQ 100 Strategy is lower, thus better.
- During the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark is 77 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 80 days from the benchmark.

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.
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- Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
- Performance results of NASDAQ 100 Strategy are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.