Too good to be true?

[robininni]

I’ve just discovered Logical Invest and have been intensely looking at all the strategies and portfolios. My first impression is “Wow!”. My second is…. “could this be too good to be true?”

Looking at the Max Drawdown less than 15% portfolio, I’m blown away that for the last 10 years I could have have a CAGR of 35% with a max drawdown of 12%. That’s insanely awesome! That would have made me a fortune! Who get’s those kind of returns? And I can just follow this and achieve something similar?

I realize things are optimized on past data, but over a 15 year period or so of monthly returns you show, is this all from the same latest optimization? Have there been any changes along the way where you kept the returns of a previous model for past years but improved later years when the orginal model(s) weren’t doing as well as they started out doing?

It just seems like if this is real and I can follow your Max Drawdown less than 15% portfolio and achieve what I see this portfolio would have achieved over the last 15 years that I have found the best investing secret in the world and you are going to give me this for $50 a month?

[Anonymous]

I’m interested in the reply to this post.

[diegoquant]

Please answer !!

[Vangelis]

We backtest our strategies and create portfolios of strategies based on recent theoretical strategy performance. This article explains why we have to use backtested data vs historic to do that: https://logical-invest.com/backtested-data-vs-historical-data/
We do track strategy historical performance based on signals issued here: https://logical-invest.com/app/historical.php
Our portfolios will never achieve peak theoretical backtested performance although when writing this note MYRS historical performance (based on issued allocations) is at 32% and 3x UIS is at 44%. Our Dow strategy on the other hand lost -6% and our US market is at 1.5%. SPY is at 22%.

Here is another article of how we strive to avoid overfitting and base our decisions on objective rules:
https://logical-invest.com/walk-forward-testing-avoid-curve-fitting-backtesting/

We obviously cannot guarantee performances but we are transparent in our practices, strategies, parameters and logic of our strategies. How? We actually give you access to the software that builds the models.

What we offer is the tools to create portfolios based on multiple rules-based strategies. These strategies are based on clear logic and rules and have been backtested. We provide our QuantTrader software for you to test or modify the logic/parameters of the strategies we build. For $50/month you get access to rules-based investing, you get to test our or your own ideas and you get to create a diversified and hedged portfolio that may limit your risk vs stock picking or emotional based trading.

[Author]

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