TMF is by far not so good as TMV short for hedging portfolio. Here is the 12 month comparison. While all treasuries had quite big losses of about -7%, a shortTMV position was flat over the year. I think for IRA accounts the better and saver way of hedging would be a part of the investment in the Bond rotation. This one should make 10-15% per year and is also good for hedging portfolio. Hedging … Read more
By request of several followers, we have now included the version with 3x leverage of the Universal Investment Strategy using synthetic SPXL and TMF data from 2002. Portfolio Builder now with leverage We’re about to publish a full article on this exciting option for this weekend, but want to pre-alert you about this upcoming adition. While this is a very aggressive strategy with leverage, it blends very nicely with a 10%-20% allocation into a portfolio … Read more
Summary:
-Aggressive leveraged version of our previously published Universal Investment Strategy
-Variable SPY-TLT allocations dynamically adapted to the market conditions.
-45% annual return with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.3 since 2002.
Due to its simplicity and low correlation to the S&P 500, there is a continued interest in the UIS version that uses 3x leveraged ETFs: ETF SPXL (Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares ETF) and TMF (Direxion Daily 30-Year Treasury Bull 3x Shares ETF). Following the suggested nomenclature by Al from AAII SV – and to honor their interest, we call this version “Hell on fire”, which alludes to the high risk/return profile of the strategy. We will show ways to blend this strategy in a well-balanced and risk-optimized portfolio as to overcome the generally negative perception of private investors towards leveraged ETF.
This is the monthly monthly Logical-Invest newsletter for June 2015. From now on this newsletter will replace the individual comments for the single strategies. The newsletter includes a strategy performance overview which can help you to switch between strategies. The same table is available if you login to your logical invest account at “My Account” and select the strategy performance menu. The table on the website is a dynamic table and will be updated every day. This way … Read more
This is the monthly Logical-Invest newsletter for July 2015. Strategy performance overview: symbol close year to date % ▴ 3 month % 1 month % 1 day % 60 day volatility 60 day correlation 3 month Sharpe 12 month Sharpe 36 month Sharpe WORLD-TOP4 284.82 8.27 0.85 -1.21 0.68 12.57 0.69 0.43 3.01 3.24 MYRS 615.56 5.11 1.02 -1.80 0.53 14.39 0.69 0.42 1.11 2.85 GMRS 4296.50 3.77 -3.35 -1.76 0.12 8.81 0.86 -2.20 -0.06 1.65 … Read more
Intelligent Algorithms run two prallel sub-strategies.
Meta- layer chooses between the two sub-strategies based on current market conditions.
Variable allocation to Treasuries provides protection from large drawdowns.
This strategy is a good fit for investors that want to invest intelligently in the U.S. equity market as well as for stock-pickers looking for a rules-based growth strategy.
The strategy can also complement our existing strategies and can work well with our more conservative strategies like BRS (bond rotation), the BUG or with non-U.S. equity strategies like World Top 4.
Logical Invest Investment Outlook November 2015 September and October have traditionally been the most volatile months of the year. This year was no exception. Investors were shaken by sharp declines in the equity markets as volatility returned with a vengeance. The simultaneous fall in equities, bonds, commodities and foreign currencies have left a lot of portfolios with flat or negative returns for the year. Many investors are now wondering on how to move forward. Students … Read more
Logical Invest Investment Outlook January 2016 Market comment: With December 2015 behind us, we have now ended one of the most challenging investing years. The US stock market ended flat for the year. All other assets like precious metals, bonds, commodities and emerging markets gave negative returns. For the past 20 years, including the 2008 subprime crisis year, we always had at least one asset group going up considerably (10% or more). Here is an … Read more
Logical Invest Investment Outlook February 2016 Market comment: Equities sold off aggressively in the beginning of the year making this January one of the worst of the last 20 years. The market managed to start a small rebound just in the last few days leaving traders pondering if this is another temporary correction or the start of a bear market. In absence of evidence of a more pronounced global economic slowdown, the recent selling looks … Read more
Logical Invest Investment Outlook March 2016 Market comment: February was another high volatility month, however it now looks like the world markets are slowly recovering. Here is a Year-to-Date chart of the world markets together with the defensive TLT (long duration Treasury) and GLD (Gold) ETFs. Last year, the normal inverse correlation of both TLT and GLD to equities failed to materialize for quite a long time. We had several months where Equities, Treasuries and Gold went … Read more