We have prepared a new version of QuantTrader which will be used to generate the Logical-Invest signals for the month of March. So please make sure you will use the new version from now on. If you are using the new version with your own strategies, you will need to re-optimize the strategies to get the same performance as with the old QuantTrader 514S version. When you do this you will probably to try out … Read more
Enhancing Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio The Permanent Portfolio is a simple, diversified portfolio You can construct it using 3 ETFs: SPY, TLT and GLD We enhance it by allowing variable allocations and monthly rebalancing We offer a free subscription so you can implement it in your own account including 401k or IRA What is the Permanent Portfolio by Harry Browne Harry Browne’s intention was to find a solution for the money “you need to take care … Read more
Our top 3 strategies this past month: Leveraged Universal Investment strategy with +7.5% return. Maximum Yield strategy at +4.3% U.S. Sector strategy (free to subscribe) at +3.1% News: Alex’s new post describes the process of blending Portfolios (rather than Strategies or ETFs) using the Portfolio Builder. Bouncing into 2019 Three fundamental trends to watch as 2019 unfolds: The first trend includes the reversal of QE in the U.S, the end of the asset purchase program of … Read more
Logical Invest Investment Outlook December 2018 The graph below is from a recent Bloomberg article entitled “A Brutal Global Market in 2018 Has Just One Champion“. That one champion, according to the article, was Treasury bills. It goes on to say: “By one simple measure, this is the worst cross-asset performance in more than a century“. Below you can see 89% of all assets had negative performances year-to-date (as of Nov. 22). This may be an exaggeration … Read more
We have made some quite important changes to the Logical Invest strategies for 2019. Please note that the January strategy allocations will be calculated based on these updated strategies. 401 / IRA compliant base strategies The new strategies will not use leveraged or inverse ETFs, making them and the portfolios derived from them, more 401 / IRA friendly. The changes have been backtested and do not reduce the performance of the strategies due to a … Read more
Must reads: Frank Grossmann’s article “How to Hedge in Times of Market Trouble” (Seeking Alpha, LI Blog) 2019 strategy updates (LI Blog) Protecting your money After almost 10 years of a continuous bull market and 2 years of exceptional growth (2016-2017), 2018 was the first year that the SP500 turned negative. Apart from the dollar index, most asset classes also fell. To make things worse, the S&P500 dropped -20% from the September highs during what is … Read more
The following ETF strategy is one of my favorite rotation strategies, which many of my friends, customers and I use now for some years. The Global Market ETF Rotation Strategy (GMR) The GMR Strategy switches between 6 different ETF on a monthly basis. The back tested return of this strategy since 2003 is quite impressive. Annual performance (CAGR) = 41.4% (S&P500=8.4%) Total performance since 2003 = 3740% (S&P500=134%) 69% of trades have positive return versus … Read more
In this paper I want to explain the readers how the Maximum Yield Rotation Strategy of www.logical-invest.com is built. This strategy harvests the so called Contango. Harvesting Contango by investing in inverse volatility This Strategy harvests contango and achieves very high returns investing in inverse volatility. From 2011 to today the annual performance was more than 70% per year. Year to date the performance is 40.9%. The Sharpe Ratio (Return/Risk) of 2.12 is a “DREAM VALUE” … Read more
As you perhaps know I have invested all my money in my own strategies, and I and my family (the best wife of all and 4 nice children) are living from the return of these investments. So, I just cannot afford to lose much money in market corrections. Therefore I always try to improve the strategies to lower the risk of major losses through hedging. Timed Hedging The new “Timed hedging” is a major improvement … Read more
A hedge is always an investment which is negatively correlated to the main investment. When the main investment goes down, the hedge should go up and if the main investment goes up, then the hedge normally goes down. It is clear, that we like the first, which is to reduce the draw downs with a hedge, but not to reduce the gains. If you have a stock portfolio, then the main hedge possibilities are: A … Read more