- 11/04/2021 at 11:22 am #82594
Is it time to drop Moderna (MRNA) from the NAS100 and Aggressive portfolios?
Lately it seems to be a lead weight (today it’s the worst performing stock in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 indices…and it seems to have had several such days over the last couple months).11/04/2021 at 1:54 pm #82597Patrick @ Logical-InvestKeymaster
Good question. Today’s announcement from Moderna was very unfortunate, but our strategies are all driven by back-tested algorithms and we publish their signals as-is and don’t make our own judgement calls. Hindsight being 20/20, we think it is best to stick to a plan and avoid making “gut” calls. Of course, each investor has their own level of knowledge and experience and should make their own decisions based on that. A few more observations…
- The NAS100 strategy uses the current components of the NASDAQ 100 Index and since MRNA is part of it, it must be part of the strategy.
- All algorithms will pick winners and losers, but we believe that the long-term performance of our strategies will approximate their historical performance.
- NAS100 is currently hedged 40% and MRNA is one of four stock picks, so the impact of any one stock is mitigated. The Aggressive Core Portfolio is even more diversified.
- If you look at the Nasdaq100 leaders sub-strategy in QuantTrader software you will see that the lookback period is 78 days. Over that period, MRNA was up 44% at the end of last month, which is why it ranked highly.
- Subscribers can use QuantTrader to view the stock rankings of any strategy and choose to add or remove individual stocks or substitute a lower ranked stock. For example, this month XLNX was the 5th ranked stock in the Nasdaq100 leaders sub-strategy which uses the top 4 ranked stocks.
I hope that helps and would be interested to hear other subscribers’ thoughts on the topic…11/09/2021 at 1:18 pm #82608
Thanks Patrick, appreciate the context and definitely makes sense.
Cheers!11/28/2021 at 8:25 am #82668UkiwiSParticipant
It looks like the Omnicron variant is helping MRNA and giving it a well needed “Booster”11/28/2021 at 11:02 pm #82670
Ha, nice one…and unfortunately very true.
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