Like many, I entered 2023 with a bearish/recency bias. Even now, it’s hard for me to reconcile the bullish price action with the thought in my head that we can’t go from zero to over 5% on the Fed funds and go on to new NDX/SPX highs. Two mid year reflections on this:
The first is validation of a service like Logical Invest that removes my bias and the second is that it’s all about liquidity not common sense. The two people, I would recommend following for out of the box research on liquidity are Lynn Alden and Sven Henrich/Northman Trader. In Lynn’s free July newsletter she opened my eyes to how the deficit is counter acting the fed’s tightening and Sven mentioned that as well in one of his free YouTube videos.
So maybe we can float around up here, until something breaks? Fascinating and strange times! I’d love to hear what others think and are doing.