A proper inflation hedge: The Gold-Currency strategy I had a dream the other day: I was 9 years old, sitting on the edge of a small harbour, my legs swinging above the water. My grandfather was sitting next to me. We both held fishing rods, staring into the horizon, waiting for the occasional fish to bite. He was telling me stories about the times after world war II where money became worthless, just pieces of … Read more
We are navigating through an unknown economic environment. Central banks are experimenting with controlling inflation versus causing recessions. Economists are trying to compare todays macro trends to those of the late 60’s, early 70’s. Truth is they don’t know the outcome as today’s labor markets are very different from the past. As the powers-to-be play out this experiment, the safety of our funds should be our priority. Be defensive. Have a plan. Dollar up everything … Read more
The ECB’s latest interest raise ends an 8-year period of European negative rates and signals the final chapter of the zero interest rate era. On the other side of the Atlantic, the FED sees a 3.8% rate by the end of 2023. Seasoned investors may see this as a return to more normal times, before the global financial crisis in 2008, when one could expect a 4% interest on their savings. But many analysts point … Read more
Performances Most strategies were in the green for July. Rates: Inflation vs Recession For July the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps), taking the fed funds rate to 2.25% – 2.50%. A few days before the ECB hiked rates by 0.5% lifting them from the previous -0.5%. This was the first time the ECB raised rates in 11 years. These are actions that the central banks are forced to take … Read more
Important updates to all strategies and portfolios We have major updates to our strategies. You can read a detailed description on what has changed, why and how that affects the website charts going forward. We extended our #Cash (or STBS)and #Hedge sub-strategies so more strategies can use them. We have added VTIP or ‘inflation protected cash’ to #Hedge . We added the #Cash sub-strategy to the Universal Investment strategies and to the Enhanced Permanent portfolio strategy. We updated Nasdaq and Dow components as well as … Read more
Now is when you need rules – Subscribe This has been a tough year as most portfolios suffered losses. Neither equity nor bonds have provided protection, while gold has remained flat. It is a good time to stick to rules and protect capital while being able to participate in any rebound. Top 3 Strategy Allocations -Follow up Following up on last month’s publicly announced allocation to the Top 3 strategy, we can see a tolerable … Read more
Sell in May and go away? The SP500 fell -8.8% in April, down -13% year to date (YTD). The current chart looks scary enough to warrant a temporary rally. If not there is room below for further correction. Should one go to cash or stay invested?Should one adjust their portfolio and how? Top 3 Strategy Allocations – Free preview Below are the upcoming allocation for our Top 3 strategy. We are providing these not as … Read more
Monthly strategy performance table A look inside our strategy development process A Proposal on listing all sub-strategies Eropean based investors and U.S. ETFs Strategy Performance – Moderate gains on Equity rebound Most of our strategies were positive as the market rebounded from last month’s selloff. Logical Invest Strategy development process – A look inside Our philosophy in portfolio construction is controlling risk via diversification and hedging.Here is our typical construction process for a strategy such … Read more
Strategy Performance – Protecting capital All of our strategies protected capital, with positive gains or small losses (mostly less than -1%). The S&P fell -3% for the month. TLT was at down at -1.6%. War in Europe Just as we were hoping the COVID pandemic is finally past us and we can return to some degree of normalcy, war breaks out in Europe. Russia invades Ukraine and the world as we know it changes. These … Read more
The stick and the carrot Fro the sake of argument, let us imagine that the FED is the parent and we, investors, we are the children. The parent gives us money and we spend it on toys, candy and what not. We get comfortable consuming as we assume the parent always provides,. All is well. We keep buying and eventually force candy prices up. The parent gets uncomfortable with the new prices and next time … Read more