Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound. 

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'The total return on a portfolio of investments takes into account not only the capital appreciation on the portfolio, but also the income received on the portfolio. The income typically consists of interest, dividends, and securities lending fees. This contrasts with the price return, which takes into account only the capital gain on an investment.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the total return, or performance of 134.7% in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (77.6%)
  • Looking at total return in of 65.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (53.5%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (12.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 18.2%, which is greater, thus better than the value of 15.4% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The volatility over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 14.7%, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (13.3%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the historical 30 days volatility is 13.8%, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 13% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk of 9.7% in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.6%)
  • Compared with SPY (9.4%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside volatility of 9.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Sharpe Ratio over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 1.1, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.73) in the same period.
  • Looking at ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) in of 1.13 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.99).

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 1.67 in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (1.01)
  • Looking at ratio of annual return and downside deviation in of 1.7 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (1.37).

Ulcer:

'Ulcer Index is a method for measuring investment risk that addresses the real concerns of investors, unlike the widely used standard deviation of return. UI is a measure of the depth and duration of drawdowns in prices from earlier highs. Using Ulcer Index instead of standard deviation can lead to very different conclusions about investment risk and risk-adjusted return, especially when evaluating strategies that seek to avoid major declines in portfolio value (market timing, dynamic asset allocation, hedge funds, etc.). The Ulcer Index was originally developed in 1987. Since then, it has been widely recognized and adopted by the investment community. According to Nelson Freeburg, editor of Formula Research, Ulcer Index is “perhaps the most fully realized statistical portrait of risk there is.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Downside risk index over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 3.67 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (3.97 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (4.1 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 3.44 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the maximum reduction from previous high of -14.9 days in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high is -14.9 days, which is larger, thus better than the value of -19.3 days from the benchmark.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The maximum days under water over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 129 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the maximum days below previous high is 124 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 139 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the average time in days below previous high water mark of 27 days in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (42 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days below previous high is 26 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 37 days from the benchmark.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations
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Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors worst US sectors are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.