Description of US sectors worst US sectors

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound. 

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics of US sectors worst US sectors (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (72.2%) in the period of the last 5 years, the total return, or performance of 161.1% of US sectors worst US sectors is larger, thus better.
  • Looking at total return in of 63.4% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to SPY (48.3%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 21.2%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (11.5%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (14.1%) in the period of the last 3 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 17.8% is larger, thus better.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 15.4% in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively greater, thus worse in comparison to the benchmark SPY (13.2%)
  • During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 12.7%, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 12.4% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Downside risk is the financial risk associated with losses. That is, it is the risk of the actual return being below the expected return, or the uncertainty about the magnitude of that difference. Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 15.9% of US sectors worst US sectors is greater, thus worse.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 13.5%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 14.1% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio is the measure of risk-adjusted return of a financial portfolio. Sharpe ratio is a measure of excess portfolio return over the risk-free rate relative to its standard deviation. Normally, the 90-day Treasury bill rate is taken as the proxy for risk-free rate. A portfolio with a higher Sharpe ratio is considered superior relative to its peers. The measure was named after William F Sharpe, a Nobel laureate and professor of finance, emeritus at Stanford University.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.68) in the period of the last 5 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.22 of US sectors worst US sectors is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (0.93) in the period of the last 3 years, the Sharpe Ratio of 1.2 is greater, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1.17 in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively higher, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.62)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation is 1.13, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.82 from the benchmark.

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • The Ulcer Index over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 3.63 , which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (3.95 ) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (4 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Downside risk index of 3.55 is lower, thus worse.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -14.9 days of US sectors worst US sectors is higher, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-19.3 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -14.9 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (187 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum days below previous high of 129 days of US sectors worst US sectors is lower, thus better.
  • Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 129 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (139 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the average days below previous high of 26 days in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (41 days)
  • During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 34 days, which is lower, thus better than the value of 36 days from the benchmark.

Performance of US sectors worst US sectors (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations of US sectors worst US sectors
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Allocations

Returns of US sectors worst US sectors (%)

  • "Year" returns in the table above are not equal to the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors worst US sectors are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.