Description

A sub-strategy for the U.S. Sector strategy. It goes long the worst performing U.S. sectors assuming they may rebound. 

Methodology & Assets

See the main US Sector strategy for a detailed asset description.

Statistics (YTD)

What do these metrics mean? [Read More] [Hide]

TotalReturn:

'Total return is the amount of value an investor earns from a security over a specific period, typically one year, when all distributions are reinvested. Total return is expressed as a percentage of the amount invested. For example, a total return of 20% means the security increased by 20% of its original value due to a price increase, distribution of dividends (if a stock), coupons (if a bond) or capital gains (if a fund). Total return is a strong measure of an investment’s overall performance.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 103.6%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (85%) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (24.7%) in the period of the last 3 years, the total return of 19.1% is lower, thus worse.

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate isn't a true return rate, but rather a representational figure. It is essentially a number that describes the rate at which an investment would have grown if it had grown the same rate every year and the profits were reinvested at the end of each year. In reality, this sort of performance is unlikely. However, CAGR can be used to smooth returns so that they may be more easily understood when compared to alternative investments.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The annual performance (CAGR) over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 15.3%, which is larger, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (13.1%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) is 6%, which is lower, thus worse than the value of 7.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security or market index. Volatility can either be measured by using the standard deviation or variance between returns from that same security or market index. Commonly, the higher the volatility, the riskier the security. In the securities markets, volatility is often associated with big swings in either direction. For example, when the stock market rises and falls more than one percent over a sustained period of time, it is called a 'volatile' market.'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Looking at the 30 days standard deviation of 18.9% in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (20.9%)
  • Compared with SPY (17.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 15.4% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'The downside volatility is similar to the volatility, or standard deviation, but only takes losing/negative periods into account.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The downside volatility over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 12.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (15%) in the same period.
  • During the last 3 years, the downside volatility is 10.7%, which is lower, thus better than the value of 12.1% from the benchmark.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the Sharpe Ratio of 0.68 in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.51)
  • During the last 3 years, the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) is 0.23, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 0.3 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment asset, portfolio, or strategy. It is a modification of the Sharpe ratio but penalizes only those returns falling below a user-specified target or required rate of return, while the Sharpe ratio penalizes both upside and downside volatility equally. Though both ratios measure an investment's risk-adjusted return, they do so in significantly different ways that will frequently lead to differing conclusions as to the true nature of the investment's return-generating efficiency. The Sortino ratio is used as a way to compare the risk-adjusted performance of programs with differing risk and return profiles. In general, risk-adjusted returns seek to normalize the risk across programs and then see which has the higher return unit per risk.'

Applying this definition to our asset in some examples:
  • Looking at the downside risk / excess return profile of 1 in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.71)
  • Looking at downside risk / excess return profile in of 0.33 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (0.42).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Looking at the Ulcer Ratio of 7.32 in the last 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (9.33 )
  • Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Ratio of 8.52 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'Maximum drawdown is defined as the peak-to-trough decline of an investment during a specific period. It is usually quoted as a percentage of the peak value. The maximum drawdown can be calculated based on absolute returns, in order to identify strategies that suffer less during market downturns, such as low-volatility strategies. However, the maximum drawdown can also be calculated based on returns relative to a benchmark index, for identifying strategies that show steady outperformance over time.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -27.1 days of US sectors worst US sectors is larger, thus better.
  • Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum drop from peak to valley of -20.5 days is higher, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

Using this definition on our asset we see for example:
  • Compared with the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum time in days below previous high water mark of 492 days of US sectors worst US sectors is greater, thus worse.
  • Compared with SPY (488 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum days under water of 492 days is higher, thus worse.

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

Which means for our asset as example:
  • The average days below previous high over 5 years of US sectors worst US sectors is 120 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (123 days) in the same period.
  • Compared with SPY (179 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 175 days is lower, thus better.

Performance (YTD)

Historical returns have been extended using synthetic data.

Allocations ()

Allocations

Returns (%)

  • Note that yearly returns do not equal the sum of monthly returns due to compounding.
  • Performance results of US sectors worst US sectors are hypothetical, do not account for slippage, fees or taxes, and are based on backtesting, which has many inherent limitations, some of which are described in our Terms of Use.