US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 153.8%, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (81.5%) in the same period.
• Looking at total return in of 85.2% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (48.1%).

CAGR:

'The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a useful measure of growth over multiple time periods. It can be thought of as the growth rate that gets you from the initial investment value to the ending investment value if you assume that the investment has been compounding over the time period.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (12.7%) in the period of the last 5 years, the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.5% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Looking at compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in of 22.8% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (14%).

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• The historical 30 days volatility over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 12.1%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (20.5%) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (23.8%) in the period of the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation of 14% is lower, thus better.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (15%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside volatility of 8.7% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Looking at downside volatility in of 10.1% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (17.3%).

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• The ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 1.49, which is higher, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (0.5) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (0.48) in the period of the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) of 1.46 is larger, thus better.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Looking at the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 2.08 in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.68)
• Compared with SPY (0.66) in the period of the last 3 years, the excess return divided by the downside deviation of 2.01 is higher, thus better.

Ulcer:

'The ulcer index is a stock market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987, and published by him and Byron McCann in their 1989 book The Investors Guide to Fidelity Funds. It's designed as a measure of volatility, but only volatility in the downward direction, i.e. the amount of drawdown or retracement occurring over a period. Other volatility measures like standard deviation treat up and down movement equally, but a trader doesn't mind upward movement, it's the downside that causes stress and stomach ulcers that the index's name suggests.'

• The Downside risk index over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 3.2 , which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (7.13 ) in the same period.
• Compared with SPY (8.25 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 3.88 is smaller, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -15 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is higher, thus better.
• Looking at maximum drop from peak to valley in of -15 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively larger, thus better in comparison to SPY (-33.7 days).

MaxDuration:

'The Maximum Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. It is the length of time the account was in the Max Drawdown. A Max Drawdown measures a retrenchment from when an equity curve reaches a new high. It’s the maximum an account lost during that retrenchment. This method is applied because a valley can’t be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the bottom of the largest trough is recorded.'

• The maximum time in days below previous high water mark over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 104 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (150 days) in the same period.
• Looking at maximum days below previous high in of 104 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively smaller, thus better in comparison to SPY (150 days).

AveDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• The average days under water over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 22 days, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (41 days) in the same period.
• Looking at average time in days below previous high water mark in of 22 days in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus better in comparison to SPY (36 days).