US Sector Rotation Strategy

TotalReturn:

'Total return, when measuring performance, is the actual rate of return of an investment or a pool of investments over a given evaluation period. Total return includes interest, capital gains, dividends and distributions realized over a given period of time. Total return accounts for two categories of return: income including interest paid by fixed-income investments, distributions or dividends and capital appreciation, representing the change in the market price of an asset.'

• The total return, or increase in value over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 96.9%, which is lower, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (105.3%) in the same period.
• Looking at total return, or performance in of 25.5% in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively lower, thus worse in comparison to SPY (31.6%).

CAGR:

'Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (15.5%) in the period of the last 5 years, the annual return (CAGR) of 14.5% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the annual performance (CAGR) is 7.9%, which is smaller, thus worse than the value of 9.6% from the benchmark.

Volatility:

'Volatility is a rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time.'

• The 30 days standard deviation over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 12.8%, which is lower, thus better compared to the benchmark SPY (20.9%) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the 30 days standard deviation is 12.6%, which is smaller, thus better than the value of 17.6% from the benchmark.

DownVol:

'Risk measures typically quantify the downside risk, whereas the standard deviation (an example of a deviation risk measure) measures both the upside and downside risk. Specifically, downside risk in our definition is the semi-deviation, that is the standard deviation of all negative returns.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (14.9%) in the period of the last 5 years, the downside deviation of 9.3% of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (12.3%) in the period of the last 3 years, the downside deviation of 9.2% is lower, thus better.

Sharpe:

'The Sharpe ratio (also known as the Sharpe index, the Sharpe measure, and the reward-to-variability ratio) is a way to examine the performance of an investment by adjusting for its risk. The ratio measures the excess return (or risk premium) per unit of deviation in an investment asset or a trading strategy, typically referred to as risk, named after William F. Sharpe.'

• Looking at the ratio of return and volatility (Sharpe) of 0.94 in the last 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to the benchmark SPY (0.62)
• During the last 3 years, the risk / return profile (Sharpe) is 0.43, which is greater, thus better than the value of 0.4 from the benchmark.

Sortino:

'The Sortino ratio, a variation of the Sharpe ratio only factors in the downside, or negative volatility, rather than the total volatility used in calculating the Sharpe ratio. The theory behind the Sortino variation is that upside volatility is a plus for the investment, and it, therefore, should not be included in the risk calculation. Therefore, the Sortino ratio takes upside volatility out of the equation and uses only the downside standard deviation in its calculation instead of the total standard deviation that is used in calculating the Sharpe ratio.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (0.87) in the period of the last 5 years, the ratio of annual return and downside deviation of 1.3 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is greater, thus better.
• Looking at excess return divided by the downside deviation in of 0.59 in the period of the last 3 years, we see it is relatively greater, thus better in comparison to SPY (0.58).

Ulcer:

'The Ulcer Index is a technical indicator that measures downside risk, in terms of both the depth and duration of price declines. The index increases in value as the price moves farther away from a recent high and falls as the price rises to new highs. The indicator is usually calculated over a 14-day period, with the Ulcer Index showing the percentage drawdown a trader can expect from the high over that period. The greater the value of the Ulcer Index, the longer it takes for a stock to get back to the former high.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (9.32 ) in the period of the last 5 years, the Ulcer Index of 6.05 of US Sector Rotation Strategy is lower, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (10 ) in the period of the last 3 years, the Ulcer Index of 7.37 is lower, thus better.

MaxDD:

'A maximum drawdown is the maximum loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. Maximum Drawdown is an indicator of downside risk over a specified time period. It can be used both as a stand-alone measure or as an input into other metrics such as 'Return over Maximum Drawdown' and the Calmar Ratio. Maximum Drawdown is expressed in percentage terms.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (-33.7 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the maximum DrawDown of -16.4 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is larger, thus better.
• Compared with SPY (-24.5 days) in the period of the last 3 years, the maximum reduction from previous high of -16.4 days is larger, thus better.

MaxDuration:

'The Drawdown Duration is the length of any peak to peak period, or the time between new equity highs. The Max Drawdown Duration is the worst (the maximum/longest) amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs). Many assume Max DD Duration is the length of time between new highs during which the Max DD (magnitude) occurred. But that isn’t always the case. The Max DD duration is the longest time between peaks, period. So it could be the time when the program also had its biggest peak to valley loss (and usually is, because the program needs a long time to recover from the largest loss), but it doesn’t have to be'

• The maximum days below previous high over 5 years of US Sector Rotation Strategy is 507 days, which is higher, thus worse compared to the benchmark SPY (488 days) in the same period.
• During the last 3 years, the maximum days under water is 507 days, which is larger, thus worse than the value of 488 days from the benchmark.

AveDuration:

'The Average Drawdown Duration is an extension of the Maximum Drawdown. However, this metric does not explain the drawdown in dollars or percentages, rather in days, weeks, or months. The Avg Drawdown Duration is the average amount of time an investment has seen between peaks (equity highs), or in other terms the average of time under water of all drawdowns. So in contrast to the Maximum duration it does not measure only one drawdown event but calculates the average of all.'

• Compared with the benchmark SPY (123 days) in the period of the last 5 years, the average time in days below previous high water mark of 131 days of US Sector Rotation Strategy is higher, thus worse.
• During the last 3 years, the average days under water is 188 days, which is greater, thus worse than the value of 177 days from the benchmark.